If you are a Red Sox fan in 2023, you have probably gone through a rollercoaster of an offseason. You lost who was arguably the shortstop of the future, lost a few key parts of the starting rotation and bullpen, and the man who was going to step into the shortstop position went down with a UCL injury. Let’s revisit the entirety of the Red Sox offseason moves.

Here’s a timeline of the red sox offseason

This Offseason is obviously headlined by the losses. Xander Bogaerts, Nate Eovaldi, and J.D Martinez were lost, and Trevor Story will be down for a majority of the year. Thats a huge blow, but their lineup is not a horrible one. The projected lineup is:

1. LF Masataka Yoshida
2. SS Kiké Hernandez
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. DH Justin Turner
5. 1B Triston Casas
6. CF Adam Duvall
7. RF Alex Verdugo
8. 2B Arroyo/Mondesi 
9. C Reese McGuire

The signings of Yoshida and Turner were questioned by most. The aging Turner was signed to a 1 year, $12 million contract. I’m not sure why the Red Sox would do this, as the young CF Jarren Duran should be getting more at bats to develop, while one of the Outfielders, Hernandez, Yoshida, Verdugo, or Duvall get time at DH. It seems like they sort of gave up on Duran early, like they gave up on Jeter Downs at the end of 2022, promptly designating him for assignment, leading to his release.

The signing of Yoshida was questioned for different reasons. Yoshida was given a 5 year, 90 million dollar contract. It’s a lot of money for a player who hasn’t had a major league at bat, and a hefty contract for a team that is not projected to be in the hunt. As we’ve seen more times than not, many Japanese players that sign for a large amount of money don’t pan out. Although it is a risk, there is a very high upside, as he was compared to Juan Soto, a complete hitter in the Nippon Baseball League. Its an extremely high risk – high reward move that could backfire.

If we take a look at boston’s pitching staff, it’s very thin on all fronts. The projected Starting rotation (The order may vary)

1. Chris Sale
2. Nick Pivetta
3. Garrett Whitlock
4. James Paxton
5. Bryan Bello
6. James Paxton
7. Corey Kluber

Right off the bat, they lack a durable ace. Chris Sale when healthy is obviously an ace, but he hasn’t been fully healthy since 2017. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery from 2021, and a finger fracture. As Sale enters his age 34 season, theres a good possibility that he would not live up to “ace” expectations

James Paxton and Corey Kluber have also both had  durability issues. Paxton is coming off 3 consecutive years of arm injuries. The latest one being a UCL tear resulting in Tommy John surgery. Although he is not expected to bring as much to the table as sale, hes expected to be a core part of the rotation as the lone left handed starter. Kluber as well has had multiple injury issues, not having a full season since 2018. The right hander entering his age 37 season is also expected to hold a huge spot, for how undurable he has shown to be of recent.

Red Sox Projection:

Based on the current situation, I can’t see Boston getting past 4th place in the AL east. Baltimore and Boston should be in the race for 4th, as both of their pitching staffs are weak, but Boston has a slightly better lineup. We shouldnt be surprised however if Baltimore flies past Boston, if they fasttrack top pitching prospects such as Grayson Rodriguez, and possibly become a conservative buyer at the deadline.

As for the AL Wild Card chase, Boston should not be too close to securing a wild card spot. Whoever takes 2nd and 3rd place from the AL East almost certainly will have a WC spot, and one of the Mariners, Angels, Guardians, and White sox, should be much closer to one of the three spots then the red sox.

What’s Chaims vision:

I wish there was a straightforward answer to this, such as Rebuild, Championship contention, wild card contention, etc. Chaim has done just enough to draw a fair amount of people to fenway park, but not enough to be close to contention. Most of their prospects that aren’t in the Majors already are not projected to be up in time for 2023. This will almost certainly be a year where Boston can stay below the CBT threshold, and gear up for maybe another spending spree for 2024, when they have enough young talent to fight for a wild card. It wouldn’t exactly be a rebuild, but more like a retool gap year, like how the Yankees did in 2016, missing out on the wild card, then advancing to the ALCS, one win away from the world series just a year later.