Jurickson Profar in left field for the Yankees may not be the best of ideas, so where could he end up?

As we approach the month of February, the month in which players report to spring training sites, the free agent market begins to shrink in size. The Yankees continue to search for an answer in left field, and one of those options the Yankees have inquired about is Former San Diego Padres utility man Jurickson Profar. While most have welcomed the idea of Profar, it may be a far fetched idea. 

The switch hitting Curaçao native Profar offered the Padres with a decent amount of offense in 2022, posting a batting average of .243, while slugging .391 with an OPS of .722. He had a career high in walks, and a career high in hard hit percentage. 

To compare him to other talent around the league, he was in the 84th percentile of all MLB batters or higher in strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and whiff percentage, while being in the 79th percentile in chase rate, according to baseball savant. You could only imagine that his numbers would play up at Yankee stadium, as 40.2% of balls hit by Profar are pulled, which would play well to the short porch. 

Although he could provide a short term answer with the bat, the defensive numbers show numbers Brian Cashman would not approve of. He was in the bottom 8 percentile in total outs above average, posting a negative number in all positions he played (besides first base), including a -6 in left field. He had 2 DRZ, but his defensive numbers in the Outfield have been fluctuant in the past. 

The Yankees would also have to make a commitment larger than just the number of Profar’s base salary. Assuming Profar gets a deal in the $10-14 million range, the Yankees would be passing MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $230 million. Their payroll as of right now is $230 million, so even if the Yankees are able to get a team to take on 70% of Aaron Hicks’ contract, they would still be surpassing the threshold. If you weren’t aware of the penalty’s that come with surpassing the threshold, the team would have their first round pick in the MLB amateur draft moved back 10 places, plus a 20% tax on every dollar spent on payroll past $230 million. Since 2020, Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner have been committed to staying under the CBT threshold. 

It would be more beneficial to continue the development of Oswaldo Cabrera as an outfielder, seeing how he had a pleasantly surprising run in his first stretch in the majors, with a .259 average with a .494 slugging and a .827 OPS in September. This would likely happen while they continue to find a deal for Aaron Hicks, as it clearly seems that the Yankees will attempt to shed some of his contract, and open his roster spot, possibly for an outfielder like Rafael Ortega, Billy McKinney, or Michael Hermosillo, who all signed MILB deals with a non roster invite to spring training, to take on that 4th outfielder spot. As always, the trade deadline possibility always looms, with Brian Cashman always ready to strike. 

As for Profars outlook, he could end up on a fringe wild card contender like the brewers, twins, or rays, if not ending up on a non contending team like the Rockies or Nationals, where he could end up flipped by the deadline. There isn’t much demand for profars skill set, seeing how he is still not signed. If he plays well in the first half, a team would be very inclined to deal for Profar at the trade deadline.