During an interview on February 16th at the Milwaukee Brewers’ Spring Training complex, Corbin Burnes was asked about his recent arbitration loss to the club. With trade rumors surrounding him, many were looking forward to hearing Burnes’ insight regarding his relations with the club. When asked, Burnes said, “You think you work hard for seven years in the organization, and five years with the big league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” Burnes also went on to say, “They won it. But when it came down to winning or losing the hearing, it was more than that for me… There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired] over the last couple weeks. There’s really no way of getting around that.” Based on Burnes’ comments stated above, it is easy to understand why he is upset with the arbitration result. From the moment Burnes found his groove at the MLB level, he has been nothing short of spectacular. Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young award, posted a combined bWAR of 9.6 between 2021 and 2022, and his cutter is widely recognized as one of baseball’s best pitches. With this success comes an expected payday and amount of recognition from the team though and it is obvious from Burnes’ accounts that these expectations have not been met. Set to become a free agent after the 2024 campaign, trade rumors have begun circling around Burnes once again. What teams could afford the price of Burnes? What would he fetch in free agency? An analysis of his key metrics followed by his potential market is conducted below.

To start things off, we need to consider what value Burnes brings to the table when it comes to trade value and a potential super deal in free agency. Burnes’ percentiles on baseball savant are some of the best in baseball overall. Burnes’ top abilities include a fastball spin in the top 1% among all pitchers, whiff% in the top 5% among all pitchers, K% in the 11% among all pitchers and a chase rate in the 13% among all pitchers. The rest of Burnes’ percentiles besides extension all rank above the top 28% among all pitchers, most sitting around or above the 20 mark. Adding on Burnes getting consistent playing time, his CY Young win in 2021, 2 all star appearances in the last two seasons, and a 9.6 bWAR between 2021 and 2022, Burnes’ case for being a top 3 starting pitcher is very strong. When we compare his numbers to arguably the number 1 starter in baseball, Jacob deGrom, the numbers compare very similarly. Firstly, Jacob deGrom has struggled severely with staying on the field these last two years, thus not leading to nearly as many accolades or the counting stats. With that being said, focusing in more on percentiles, the numbers are very similar. Firstly, Jacob deGrom has a fastball spin in the 97th percentile, two points lower than Burnes. The two pitchers go on to have practically every percentile within a close range of one another. Although these are just percentiles, these numbers help support that deGrom and Burnes are similar when it comes to their numbers. Obviously, deGrom remains a better pitcher than Corbin Burnes, but they are definitely similar with one another. Given this analysis, we can gather that Corbin Burnes could fetch anywhere from 25m AAV or higher, given the fact Jacob deGrom was just given a 5yr/185m deal with the Rangers this past off-season. The 2023 season will be very important for determining Burnes’ worth going forward.

What teams could possibly afford to add Burnes via trade or in free agency? The list may be longer than you think. The teams that appear the most likely to land Corbin Burnes include the following: St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles (Dodgers), and New York (Yankees).

Starting with St. Louis, the team has yet to determine what their pitching staff would look like in the years to come outside of a few pieces. Bringing in a guy like Burnes makes a lot of sense to help mentor talented prospects like Matthew Liberatore, and be the teams ace moving forward. The Cardinals have not been afraid to take on larger contracts in the case of other superstars like Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals also make a compelling case for a trade candidate with top prospects Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and many more on the brink of beginning their MLB careers.

Next, we have the San Diego Padres. The Padres have proven that the team isn’t afraid to go over the luxury tax or selling away the farm for big, win now pieces. Most notably, the team traded most of their farm system for young superstar Juan Soto. With the Padres having links to the Brewers about stars previously, and being rumored to have discussed the possibility of Corbin Burnes being traded, I have no doubt the team would be in the running to land Burnes in both free agency and in trade. Although the Padres have a somewhat lackluster farm after the recent trading they’ve done, prospects like Jackson Merrill, and Dylan Lesko would likely highlight a trade of this magnitude.

The next team we will be looking at is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are going into 2023 a star down after losing star short stop Trea Turner, and looking to attempt to save money to make a run at Shohei Ohtani in the coming off-season. Shohei Ohtani will likely be the teams priority in free agency, but the Dodgers definitely have the prospects to pull off a trade, having 7 top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline. The Dodgers have not been previously shy about the luxury tax either, meaning they could likely afford an extension as well.

The final team we will be examining will be the New York Yankees. The Yankees are known to be one of baseball’s most prevalent spenders, and with previous links to the Brewers about Corbin Burnes, there appears to be a heavy chance the star pitcher could be in pinstripes within the next year or so. The Yankees have plenty to offer for prospects including infielders Oswald Peraza, and Anthony Volpe, as well as much else to offer. If the Yankees could not get a trade completed, they will definitely be in the running to sign Burnes to add to the elite starting pitching core the Yanks have built.

Where Burnes will end up though is all up in the air though as we move towards his contract expiring after the 2024 season. The team that eventually lands the superstar might not even be someone we took a look at. What matters is that the market will be aggressive and Burnes should definitely be moving on after his recent comments following his arbitration loss. It is not often a starter of this caliber is up for grabs, and teams will surely be hungry to capitalize off of this opportunity.