Here we come with the 2nd of 6 2023 Divisional Outlooks. Today, we will take a look at the National League East, a divisional race that should be close, with three teams having a chance to make a deep run into the postseason, and possibly a fourth that could stay afloat through September. This race has a chance to be one of the closest we have seen in recent history.

Here are the Vegas odds to win the NL East, according to BetMGM SportsBook:

As we did with the AL East, we’ll be grading these teams out of 60 points. 6 categories graded out of 10. Those topics are:

• Lineup
• Position Player depth
• Rotation
• Bullpen
• Overall Pitching Depth
• Farm System

Here are our projections, with win totals and each teams outlook for 2023:



Division Winner: New York Mets; 100-62



After a very disappointing ending in 2022, owner Steve Cohen and the Mets front office went straight to work to prepare to spend as much money as possible to give themselves the edge they need. They blew straight past the competitive balance tax thresholds and improved everywhere they needed to.

On the pitching end, they lost three of their starters from 2022, Bassitt, DeGrom, and Walker. They countered the losses by adding more world-class pitching, including Verlander, Senga, and Quintana, to accompany the likes of Scherzer and Carrasco. This is undoubtedly the best rotation in baseball, even after the loss of former Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom, which was for the better considering his injury history and his desire to be in a smaller market. If this revamped Mets rotation can stay on the field, it will be an amazing complement to the star-studded lineup.

The lineup should be quite similar to the one they rolled out last year, with some minor additions to temporarily patch two of their glaring holes that were an issue last year. One was offensive production from catchers. Mets catchers in 2022 batted just .216 with a lousy .568 OPS and only eight home runs. The duo of McCann and Nido was not expected to be lights out offensively, but there was not enough coming from those two, especially from James McCann, whom they signed for 4 years and $40 million in 2021. To address this issue, they signed former Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez. Although Narvaez had a down year in 2022, he had a decent year in 2021, hitting .263 with a .342 OBP and logging a WAR of 1.1. Although it’s not much, it’s an upgrade for a team that had horrific offensive production at the position. If Narvaez proves to be no better than McCann, Francisco Alvarez can be inserted into the lineup. The Mets’ top prospect has already touched the MLB, playing in five games and logging only two hits. That gives the Mets options, unlike last year, where they had to settle with a catching platoon and pinch hitting for them in key situations.

As for the other hole, the Mets addressed it in their lineup. It was the DH spot against left-handed pitching. Last year, the Mets used Darin Ruf heavily down the stretch against LHP, and he had a miserable year, hitting .204 with a .645 OPS. He had a career-low year in Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) with 89. To address this issue, the Mets signed Tommy Pham to a 1-year deal. Over his career, he has shown that he excels at hitting versus lefties. Pham hit .273 with a .784 OPS and had 3.9 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) versus lefties, compared to just a .224 BA, .653 OPS, and -6.8 wRAA. It would be safe to assume that Pham will be pushed out of the lineup versus righties, as he clearly hits better versus LHPs.

As for the bullpen, the Mets parted ways with two pitchers who had troubles in 2022: Seth Lugo and Trevor May. Both were expected to be heavy lifters, but they had multiple rough patches of inconsistency throughout their respective Mets careers. Neither of the two lived up to the expectations of the fans or Mets front office. To improve the bullpen, the Mets added David Robertson to the mix on a 1-year deal. Robertson had a decent 2022, with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, while allowing 0.8 HR/9 innings. He has the potential to be a solid late-inning man for the Mets, to bridge the gap from the starter to Edwin Diaz in the 9th inning. Tylor Megill, who was a starter for the Mets for most of 2022, is expected to suit up for 2023 as a reliever. He would most likely be used in longer relief situations.

The one prospect to keep in mind this year for the Mets would be 3B Brett Baty. He appeared in 11 games last year for the Mets, and was sent right back down to AAA. He was drafted #12 by the Mets in 2019. He is a strong player, but the one issue that hinders him is his ground ball rate, which was over 50% last season, negating most of his power. If he can elevate the ball, he has the potential to take at-bats away from Eduardo Escobar later in the year, as they approach the Postseason.

Overall, it is fair to say that the Mets have done their best to separate themselves from the competition. It is surprising that Vegas has the Braves on top, despite the Mets having far more offseason improvements, and a better roster, if you look at a talent standpoint.

Full Rankings for the New York Mets:

• Lineup: 8.6/10
• Position Player depth: 9.5/10
• Rotation: 10/10
• Bullpen: 8.3/10
• Overall Pitching Depth: 8.8/10
• Farm System: 8.9/10
  • TOTAL: 54.1/60



2nd NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves: 94-68

The Braves got worse. That’s the blunt truth of the offseason for the Braves. They may still be a top team in this division, but it feels as if they did not do much, considering they have a good amount of payroll space to work with against the CBT thresholds.

They only added one impact player in C Sean Murphy, a league-average offensive player that makes his game off of stealing strikes. His framing is the 6th best in the majors, as he stole about 6 runs as a result of his framing. His pop-time is 2nd best in the league, meaning he is one of the best at getting the ball to 2B quickly, which could be even more beneficial this year as MLB undergoes rule changes that could affect action on the base paths.

The losses for the Braves were minor, except for one. William Contreras, Dansby Swanson, Kenley Jansen, Adam Duvall, and Robbie Grossman were all lost. Swanson was the biggest of the losses, leaving a glaring hole at the SS position. Vaughn Grissom will be the one to fill the void left by Swanson’s departure. He had a fairly good opening campaign in the Majors, batting .291 with a .353 OBP and having 22 wRC+ in just 41 games. Considering how he jumped from high-A to MLB in just one year and had success in MLB, it seems that the Braves are going to ride and die with Vaughn Grissom at SS.

As for pitching, the Braves have a ton of it. They have 7 pitchers that can start games and perform at the MLB level: Fried, Soroka, Wright, Strider, Anderson, Morton, and Ynoa. Injuries can be an issue, however, as Soroka has had multiple years of devastating injuries, keeping him off the field for long periods of time since 2019, and Ynoa underwent Tommy John in November, knocking him out of the picture for 2023. Other than availability, this solid rotation should be enough to keep the Braves in tightly contested games.

The Braves may not have a lot of MLB-ready talent in their farm system, but they do have a wealth of pitching. Prospects like Jared Shuster, Owen Murphy, and J.R. Ritchie are all electric talents who will be part of the team’s future. The Braves have a seemingly endless supply of young talent in their farm system, and their focus on developing strong pitching bodes well for their future success.

Full Rankings for the Atlanta Braves:

• Lineup: 8.8/10
• Position Player depth: 8/10
• Rotation: 9.1/10
• Bullpen: 7/10
• Overall Pitching Depth: 9.7/10
• Farm System: 8.4/10
  • TOTAL: 50.8/60

Missing Playoffs: Philadelphia Phillies; 87-75



It’s safe to say that the 2022 National League champs are going to have a much tougher time recreating the success they had in 2022. They are already short-handed after losing NLCS MVP Bryce Harper to Tommy John surgery recovery. However, unlike most of the other victims of the surgery, he is expected to return to the Phillies’ lineup by the All-Star break.

The Phillies and Dave Dombrowski did a pretty good job upgrading this offseason, adding Trea Turner, along with other minor signings like Taijuan Walker, Craig Kimbrel, and Josh Harrison. Turner fills a huge void that the Phillies have tried (and failed) to patch up well for many years since Jimmy Rollins retired. The use of stopgap players like Didi Gregorius and Freddy Galvis has failed them for many years, so it is definitely refreshing to finally have an established shortstop for the foreseeable future, for the first time since the Rollins era.

The one issue that the Phillies have not addressed was the bullpen. Their bullpen has been an issue for an even longer time than shortstop was an issue before Turner. Jose Alvarado will likely see most of the save opportunities. He had a fairly good 2022, posting a 3.18 ERA with only 1.22 WH/IP and 6 H/9. He had 22 holds for the Phillies last year and now should be getting saves as he emerges as the top option in the Phillies’ bullpen. The rest of the bullpen is very lackluster, despite having the somewhat reliable Alvarado. According to FanGraphs, all of the Phillies’ relievers are projected to have ERAs above 3.90, besides Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, who had a slightly better showing than Alvarado in 2022, posting a 3.00 ERA with a 1.14 WH/IP, and has had multiple years of 50%+ ground ball rates. On days where one of those two isn’t available, the path to the 9th inning will seem very bleak, and it should be interesting to see how manager Rob Thomson deploys the bullpen on an everyday basis.

The Phillies’ farm has two top 100 prospects, both RHPs in Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. Painter, ranked 24 on MLB.com Top 100, brings a mid-90s fastball with a sinking two-seamer. Some scouts believe he can eventually touch 100 MPH on his fastball and use his two distinctive breaking balls well in the major leagues when he arrives in the MLB, which will likely be in 2024. Mick Abel is a 6’5 righty with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider in the 80s. He also has a changeup and a wicked curveball he uses to get outs. He is also on track to make his MLB debut in 2024. One of these players could provide value in the bullpen in the future for the Phillies as they wish to find an answer to bridge the starter to the 9th inning.

To recreate the success they had in 2022 will be very challenging. They will likely be in the race for a Wild Card, as they start the season shorthanded.

• Lineup: 8.3/10
• Position Player depth: 7/10
• Rotation: 8.3/10
• Bullpen: 6/10
• Overall Pitching Depth: 8/10
• Farm System: 8/10
  • TOTAL: 45.6/60

Missing Playoffs: Miami Marlins; 80-82



Another year, another season of mediocrity in South Florida. Luckily, they probably won’t be in 5th place, as they’ve made incremental strides, but none large enough to catch up to the three-headed monster of the NL East top dogs.

After signing Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto, they decided to make a surprising trade in the middle of the offseason, trading Pablo Lopez to the Twins for Luis Arraez. Strategically, it could work since a 5-man rotation with Alcantara, Sanchez, Cabrera, Luzardo, and Cueto can cover the void. Arraez adds an on-base machine at the top of the lineup. The rest of the lineup is about league average, which would reflect their projected record.

As always, the Marlins seem to have an infinite supply of effective pitchers signed by way of international signings. Four of the five current starters were international talents. The next wave (intl. and non-intl) will be Eury Perez, Max Meyer, and Jake Eder, all expected to arrive in 2024.

There isn’t much to talk about with this organization, as they are consistently mediocre. Nothing much changes with the Marlins, and it showed in Derek Jeter’s frustrations with the ownership group not caring enough to be more competitive. Their farm system keeps them afloat, and South Florida will always attract Latin American international free agents.

Full Rankings for the Miami Marlins:

• Lineup: 7.2/10
• Position Player depth: 7/10
• Rotation: 8.9/10
• Bullpen: 6/10
• Overall Pitching Depth: 8.4/10
• Farm System: 9.5/10
  • TOTAL: 47/60

Missing Playoffs: Washington Nationals; 62-100



This team is going to be bad, hopefully for only a few years. The offseason was quiet, as they let go of their veterans such as Nelson Cruz and Luke Voit, and took a few fliers on cheap deals that could be traded at the deadline, including Dom Smith, Corey Dickerson, and Jeimer Candelario.

They will obviously have a horrible lineup and bullpen, so as always for a rebuilding team, the goal is to develop young talent. The rebuild opens up a gateway for a class of prospects to get MLB reps in low-intensity games. Their top pitching prospect, Cade Cavalli, will get reps in the bigs. He has a menacing triple-digit fastball coming from the top of his 6’4 frame. He also has a 12-6 curve with devastating depth and a slider that cuts straight at 9-3. His K rates have always been high, and he is the most exciting of the Nats prospects. The 6’8 Jackson Rutledge will also be up in the bigs, as he could see more bullpen reps. He has a power arm, clocking in with a triple-digit fastball and a consistent 85 MPH slider, and a mid-70’s curveball. Both of the secondary pitches are considered no better than league-average, which is why most scouts see power-bullpen arm potential. Jeter Downs, who was DFA’ed by the Red Sox after the 2022 season, is a prospect who has fallen off the grid, struggling in both 2021 and 2022 after having a season in which he featured an .888 OPS and 24 home runs. In both seasons after the pandemic, he hasn’t hit above .200 in the minor leagues. The Nationals look to be possibly his last hope to develop him into Major League talent.

For the most part, the Nationals have a pitching-heavy farm, with most prospects they are focused on not being ready until 2024 and 2025. After having a sell-now offseason and trade deadline, they look to gear up for the future where GM Mike Rizzo can hopefully raise the banner once again, like they did in 2019.

Full Rankings for the Washington Nationals:

• Lineup: 5/10
• Position Player depth: 5/10
• Rotation: 6.2/10
• Bullpen: 6/10
• Overall Pitching Depth: 7.4/10
• Farm System: 8.8/10
  • TOTAL: 38.4/60