The San Diego Padres have gone from baseball’s best and most promising farm systems, to being almost completely depleted in less than two years. But, doing this has brought the Padres a ridiculous amount of talent such as superstars Juan Soto, and Josh Hader. It isn’t deniable that the Padres still have a significant amount of pieces, but just how good are they? How have they managed to hold onto some great talents even with trading away prospect after prospect? We will take a closer look below.

Prospect #1: Jackson Merrill

The first prospect we will be touching on today is left handed hitting shortstop, Jackson Merrill. Merril was a first round selection by the Padres back in 2021 (27th overall), and was originally seen as just trade bait by many. But since being drafted, Merrill has done nothing but hit. Merrill in single A last year showcased his abilities to the fullest. Merrill hit 5 homers, posted a wOBA of .398, and had a wRC+ of 125. These numbers are all really good from Merrill, especially in his first taste of affiliated baseball outside of the complex leagues. For those of you who are into more traditional stats, Merrill also posted an average of .325 in 2022 at single A. Merrill gained a raw power grade of 40/45 from Fangraphs which is incredibly respectable. Merrill battled injuries in 2022 limiting his sample size, but he also posted elite contact rate of 85% overall. In his prospect report on Fangraphs, they compared Merrill to Michael Brantley if he played the infield. Jackson also posted a hard hit rate of 44% in 2022 which was incredible compared to the MLB average for shortstops of 35%. Merrill also played really well against top arms in the 2022 Arizona Fall League which helped put his name out there. Overall, Merrill is yet another product of the San Diego Padres’ amazing player development skills and scouting ability.

As for what the future holds for Merrill in San Diego? Well, that’s unclear to say the least. The Padres have Phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop long-term on a 14yr/$340m contract, and they just signed Xander Bogaerts to an astounding 11yr/$280m contract as well. Although it appears Tatis will be slotting in the outfield more than the infield, the Padres infield remains crowded with the likes of Ha-seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth. Third base also is an interesting possibility for Merrill moving forward considering Manny Machado has expressed his certainty to use his opt-out after this season. If the Padres don’t manage to lock Machado down long-term, it’s very possible the Padres look to either use Merrill as an eventual replacement at third, or use Merrill in trade to do what the Padres are known for in trading for superstars. Overall, how Merrill’s future shakes out with the Padres will be interesting to see as time goes forward. Regardless, Jackson Merrill will be a name you need to learn now before he breaks into the Major Leagues within a few seasons.

Prospect #2: Dylan Lesko

The second prospect we will be taking a look at in our deep dive of the Padres’ system is right-handed pitcher, Dylan Lesko. Dylan Lesko was drafted in the first round of the 2022 MLB draft (15th overall), and was projected to be even higher in the draft before he received Tommy-John surgery ahead of the draft. Due to needing Tommy-John surgery in 2022, Lesko has not played affiliated baseball yet, but we can go over his scouting reports to make up for lack of stats. Fangraphs gives Lesko a 55/60 grade on his fastball, 45/50 grade on his curveball, and a 70/80 grade on his changeup. These are all really impressive grades, especially for a high-schooler coming off of Tommy-John surgery in 2023. Fangraphs also states in their prospects report on Lesko, “Lesko is arguably the most polished and complete high school pitching prospect to come along this decade.” This is incredibly high praise for Lesko, giving him a big reputation to live up to. With Lesko being the consensus top high school pitcher in the 2022 draft, and boasting a fastball in the mid 90s, he’ll be a must watch in the years to come.

Lesko’s future with the Padres is bright in my opinion. With the Padres rotation aging, and little pitching depth in the system, it makes perfect sense to me that Lesko would be one the Padres look to hold on to going forward. But, at the end of the day the Padres stay aggressive in the trade market so anything can happen if it’s for the good of the big league team. The Padres also having pitching development expert Ruben Niebla around will be great for Lesko’s future as well. To me, Lesko will be a key part of the Padres future, but you really never know with A.J. Preller and the Padres.

Prospect #3: Ethan Salas

The third prospect we will be taking a look at in our deep dive is catcher Ethan Salas. Although Salas has barely any information anywhere when it comes to numbers or scouting reports due to him being signed in late January 2023, we will still be breaking down the catcher as best as we can. Salas was the consensus number one international prospect in the 2023 international signing class, and signed with San Diego for $5.6m. MLB Pipeline gave Salas a 60 hit grade, 50 power grade, 50 run grade, 60 arm grade, 55 fielding grade, and an overall 55 grade. MLB Pipeline called Salas, “…one of the best catching prospects in recent history.” Salas displays a very strong raw power tool, and knows his strike zone very well, especially at his young age of just 16. Salas displays incredible tools all around, and looks to be one of the most complete prospects in the Padres system.

What does the future hold for Salas? Well, that’s a little complicated for the time being given the fact that Salas is just 16 years old, and has yet to touch the professional diamond. Salas though should stick in the Padres system given the lack of catching depth if Luis Campusano doesn’t work out for the Padres. But, again knowing the Padres, I’m sure a deal for Salas wouldn’t completely be off the table. As for Salas though, he was thrilled to be a Padre, claiming, “Who doesn’t want to be a Padre right now?” One thing is for certain though, and that is that Salas is incredibly talented, and should be a top prospect for years to come.

Prospect #4: Robby Snelling

The fourth prospect we’ll be examining on our look at the Padres system is left-handed pitcher, Robby Snelling. Snelling was a competitive balance selection for the San Diego Padres in 2022 (39th overall) and projects to be a beast on the mound. Unfortunately, Snelling is another prospect yet to have much when it comes to numbers in pro baseball. Going into the 2022 MLB draft, there was a lot of talk of Snelling going towards the top of the top 30 selections. Although that never ended up happening, the Padres grabbing him off the board in the competitive balance round was a great pick by the Padres. MLB Pipeline gives Snelling a 55 grade fastball, 60 grade curveball, 45 grade changeup, 50 control grade, and an overall grade of 50. This is high praise for the left-handed beast. Pipeline also goes on to say, “The 6-foot-3 left-hander has plenty of fastball, routinely up to 94 mph, touching as high as 97 over the summer.” MLB Pipeline also goes on to say, “His best pitch is his curveball and he can really spin it, a plus breaker thrown in the upper 70s that misses a ton of bats.” The former top football recruit looks to continue to live up to his high praise in 2023 as he should get his first taste of pro ball

As for Snelling’s future in the Padres organization, again time will tell more than anything. The left-hander has a lot to prove in his first season of pro ball this upcoming year, but again with the lack of pitching depth in the Padres organization, I could see the Padres look to hold on to Snelling for the long-run, but I don’t think anybody is off the table for the Padres and trade candidates going forward.

Prospect #5: Samuel Zavala

The fifth and final prospect we will be looking over in the bright Padres system is left-handed outfield Samuel Zavala. Zavala has preformed incredibly well in his time on the MiLB so far. At single A, Zavala posted a really good BB% of 13.5%, a .385 wOBA, and a 118 wRC+. Along with these great numbers, Zavala also hit 7 homers in 2022. Zavala compares well to Carlos Gonzàlez, as well as getting a 40/50 raw power grade from Fangraphs. Overall, Zavala projects to be an athletic outfielder going forward, but with how young he is, only time will tell.

As for Zavala’s future with the Padres, I think that Zavala is a good trade candidate going forward for the Padres. Zavala doesn’t project as highly as some of his peers in a lot of areas like overall hit tool where Zavala ranks 25/60 according to Fangraphs. Because of this Zavala stays a highly ranked project, but he is on the riskier side of development when it comes to prospects in the Padres system. Along with the Padres’ wild trade history, and potential replacements on the market, I see him as a piece of a big trade more than a permanent, eventual replacement in the outfield.

One Final Note:

Circling back to our original two questions, we can see that the Padres ability to draft, scout, and develop well helps keep the Padres’ farm system relevant and strong even after major trades involving key pieces. The future of San Diego is incredibly bright, whether they hold on to their pieces or trade them, there is no doubt in my mind that all the players we examined in our deep dive today will play some sort of a key role in the future of the Padres. As for the rest of the farm we did not cover, only time will tell as to where the farm system ends up in the next few years.