With Spring Training upon us, it’s time to start taking a look into what this season might entail. With the shift restrictions, pitch clock addition, and much more, there is a lot of room for hitters to improve this upcoming season. Looking ahead, these changes should lead to an offensive explosion, especially for players who have been shifted on during their whole careers. Today, we will be taking a look at 5 hitters I like for the 2023 season with all the factors involved.

Hitter #1: Matt Olson

Matt Olson is one of the most shifted on hitters in baseball with a 81.3% shifted percentage. With the shift being limited, it should be of no doubt that Olson’s numbers should explode even further. Olson’s wOBA with no shift on is .370, which is over 30 points higher than with the shift applied. With the shift mainly applying with the second baseman towards 1B and deeper in the outfield and Matt Olson being a pull hitter, it only makes sense that his offensive numbers should get even better. Matt Olson also excels when it comes to being a power bat as well, posting 34 homers in 2022 in a full 162 games. Olson also ranks in the top 6% or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage. Olson is an on-base machine, posting a 10.7% BB% in 2022 as well. Olson posted a 120 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR, and was overall one of the best lefties in baseball. Given all of this, it’s scary to think about the hitter Olson could be if you take away his outs recorded due to the shift. Below are two graphs showing the defensive positioning against Matt Olson in 500 PAs and a spray chart of his hits in 2022.

Hitter #2: Corey Seager

Similarly to Olson, Seager is another one of baseball’s most shifted against hitters, being shifted against 92.8% of the time. With the new shift changes, there’s a good case for Seager to improve even more. Again, similarly to Matt Olson, Corey Seager’s wOBA is .397 with no shift, which is over 70 points higher than with the shift. In addition to the shift helping Seager in 2023, Seager is already one of baseball’s best short stops. In 2022, Seager posted 33 homers, 15.5% K%, .331 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and a 4.5 fWAR. Seager’s offensive numbers should explode far beyond how he played in 2022. It’s also important to note that 2022 was Seager’s first year in Texas, which could lead to an adjustment period. All things, considered, I really like Seager’s chances to have a great 2023. Below are some graphs showing Seager’s spray chart, and shift hot spots.

Hitter #3: Byron Buxton

Now, you might be thinking that this is an obvious choice, but with Buxton battling injuries, I think people have forgotten just how good Buxton is. Byron Buxton is your true definition of a 5-tool player, and if it wasn’t for his injury bug, we might be talking about him being a future hall of famer. In 2022, Buxton ranked in the top 9% or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, sprint speed, and arm strength. Buxton also posted 28 homers, .356 wOBA, 136 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR, and a 135 OPS+. Buxton is another player who will seriously benefit from the shift regulations. In 2022, Buxton was shifted on 78.8% of the time, making him another heavily shifted on player. Buxton posted a wOBA of .517 with no shift, which was just over 200 points higher than his wOBA with a shift in use. Below is Buxton’s spray chart as well as his shift hot spots.

Hitter #4: Lars Nootbaar

To say that Lars Nootbaar turned heads and surprised a lot of people in 2022 would be a large underestimation. In just 108 games, Nootbaar posted a 14.7% BB%, 14 homers, .342 wOBA, and a 125 wRC+. Nootbaar stepped up in a large way for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022, and I have no doubt he’ll continue to do so in 2023. Nootbaar ranked in the top 20% in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, barrel percentage, BB%, and chase rate. Nootbaar also could benefit from the shift restrictions as well, although less than others we’ve covered so far. Nootbaar was shifted on 53% of the time, having a wOBA 66 points better without the shift in use. Below is Nootbaar’s spray chart as well as shift hot spots.

Hitter #5: Garrett Mitchell

Although Mitchell only played in 28 games in 2022, his time was amazing. Mitchell posted 2 homers, .365 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and a 1.0 fWAR. These numbers are all honestly really impressive, especially given his limited time in 2022. Mitchell should get much more playing time in 2023, especially with some interesting factors for the Brewers in the outfield. Although he wasn’t affected much and there aren’t enough at-bats to fully conclude correlation between his shift and results, Mitchell posted a wOBA over 50 points higher with no shift in effect. Mitchell should be a hitter to watch in 2023, and it should be a joy to watch him hit. Due to the lack of at-bats like I said, there will not be any graphs below like the other players.