Following up my hitters I liked in 2023, we will be going over some hitters I don’t like for 2023. With Spring Training in full swing, and the rule changes also in full effect, it will be an interesting year for hitters to trend up and down. In today’s article, we will be taking a look at 5 hitters I’m not high on in 2023, and that I think will regress.

Hitter #1: Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt, the former #2 overall pick came into the big leagues in 2022, playing overall solid and having a 20/20 campaign. In his rookie season, Witt posted 20 homers, .311 wOBA, 99 wRC+, and a 2.3 fWAR. Although solid, Witt also showed some glaring concerns. The first concern we will be taking a look at is Witt’s struggles against fastballs. Witt had a -7 run value against 4-seam fastballs, which is also the pitch he saw the most. Witt saw the fastball over 37% of the time in 2022, and posted a wOBA just over .300 against it. This is not even mentioning Witt’s 25.3% whiff percentage and 28.2% K% against the fastball. Not only did Witt struggle against the fastball, but Witt also struggled when it came to knowing his strike zone, ranking in the bottom 84% or worse in chase rate and BB%. Witt walked just 4.7% of the time in 2022. Witt is also not somebody who should significantly benefit from any of the rule changes, only being shifted on 4% of the time. Granted, Witt has shown a lot of promise in his first season in the MLB in 2022, coming in the top 8% in all of MLB when it came to max exit velocity. Witt has the tools to be a great 5-tool player, but he still has some significant places to improve in 2023 before he can be considered a top SS in the game.

Hitter #2: Jeremy Peña

Peña, another 2022 rookie short stop has been severely overvalued because of his Postseason run. Granted, Peña showed significant signs of improvement when it came to his scorching hot MLB postseason, but during the season, he wasn’t anywhere as good. In the 2022 regular season, Peña posted 22 homers, .309 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, and a less than impressive BB% of 3.9%. Peña also ranked in the bottom 30% or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Whiff percentage, and chase rate. Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections show Peña having a similar season to the one he had in 2023 with, 21 homers, 6.2% BB%, .312 wOBA, and a 3.4 fWAR. Again, Peña showed a lot of promise with how he played in the 2022 Postseason, but the lackluster numbers I presented scare me when it comes to Peña in 2023.

Hitter #3: Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner, a former first rounder out of Stanford, had his best big league season yet in 2022. Hoerner broke out and put his name on the map, but he has some concerning parts of his game. In 2022, Hoerner posted 10 homers, .320 wOBA, 106 wRC+, and a 4.0 fWAR. These numbers are solid for a breakout season, but there is much more to his game that concerns me. Hoerner ranks in the bottom 31% of baseball in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, BB%, and chase rate. Hoerner also posted a barrel percentage of 2.1% which is very underwhelming. Along with this, Nico also had a ground ball percentage of slightly over 49%, and that combined with the weak 2.1% barrel percentage, does not make a good combo. In fact, that combination is quite concerning. With Hoerner’s average exit velocity in the bottom 16% of MLB, and the combination of his barrel percentage being low and a high ground ball percentage, I assume that a lot of Hoerner’s hits were weakly hit ground balls. Another reason I have to support this is that most of Hoerner’s hits on his spray chart were towards the back end of the infield, meaning my analysis of Hoerner getting lucky with ground ball placement may be correct. Hoerner also maintained a relatively low BB% of 5.4%, which is also quite concerning. All things considered, there are a lot of areas that propose concern when it comes to Hoerner in 2023.

Hitter #4: Ketel Marte

Marte, an all-star just 4 seasons ago in 2019, posted an overall underwhelming 2022. In 2022, Marte hit 12 homers, .317 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR. Marte also posted a barrel percentage in the bottom 68% of MLB, and a hard hit percentage in the bottom 39%. Now, these numbers are not immediately bad, but they are just average. Marte also maintained a negative run value of -2 or worse on 4-seam fastballs, sliders, cutters, and splitters. Overall, these 4 pitches make up 57.9% of the pitches Marte faced in 2022. Marte may not have the most convincing case against him for 2023 like the others I’ve mentioned so far, but overall I think the average numbers Marte posted in 2022 mixed with concerning numbers against pitches he faces make for a pretty concerning outlook for Marte in 2023.

Hitter #5: Jared Walsh

Walsh, coming off of an all-star 2021 season, severely fell off in 2022. The lefty Walsh posted 15 homers, .278 wOBA, 78 wRC+, and a -0.6 fWAR in 118 games. Now, those numbers alone are incredibly concerning just how good Walsh was in 2021. Walsh was also incredibly underwhelming when it came to how he stacked up against the rest of the MLB in, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, whiff percentage, and chase rate, being in the bottom 63% or worse in every category. Walsh also has a negative run value of -5 or worse against 4-seam fastballs, sliders, curveballs, changeup, sinkers, and splitters. Between those 6 pitches, those totaled to about 93.3% of the pitches Walsh saw in 2022. This is absolutely beyond concerning considering Walsh was over 90% negative against the pitches he saw in 2022. Walsh is also not somebody that will benefit from baseball’s new rules, not showing much difference between his numbers with and without a shift applied. With all things considered, I don’t see where Walsh will significantly improve in 2023, making him another pretty concerning hitter going into this season.