Continuing on the series of taking a look at players that will improve and regress in 2023, we will be taking a look at 5 pitchers I like for 2023. Baseball is a game where anything can happen, especially when it comes to pitchers. As the season progresses, pitchers trend up and down like there’s no end in sight.

Pitcher #1: George Kirby

Former first rounder George Kirby is coming off of a really solid rookie season in 2022 for Seattle. In 2022, Kirby pitched to 133 strikeouts in 130 innings, 9.21 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 24.5 K%, 4.1 BB%, 3.31 xERA, and a 3.0 fWAR. These numbers are all really good, especially in a rookie season. In addition to the numbers mentioned previously, Kirby also ranked in the top 4% of MLB when it came to BB%. Kirby also has a deep arsenal of 6 pitches. Kirby throws a 4-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, sinker, slider, and a changeup. Out of those 6 pitches, Kirby’s fastball is one of baseball’s best, coming in at a -18 run value. Opponents whiff on Kirby’s fastball over 26% of the time, strikeout over 30% of the time, and opponents post a .257 wOBA against it. This is really, really good considering Kirby tends to throw his fastball the most, relying on it around 45% of the time. Kirby throws 4 of his 6 pitches with break over 16 inches of total movement. Kirby not only succeeds normally, but pressure does not bother Kirby one bit as he pitched to a wOBA of .245 with runners in scoring position. All things considered, I think Kirby is a really safe bet to have a great 2023 season for the Mariners.

Pitcher #2: Joe Ryan

Ryan, a 2021 trade acquisition by the Twins showed a lot of promise during his 2022 rookie season. Last season, Ryan pitched to 151 strikeouts in 147 innings, 9.24 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 25% K%, 7.8 BB%, 3.57 xERA, and a 2.1 fWAR. Considering all these numbers, Ryan was overwhelmingly solid in his first full MLB season. Ryan also ranked in the top 37% of better in hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K%. Ryan relies on a lineup of 5 pitches to attack hitters, consisting of a 4-seam fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, and a sweeper. Similarly to Kirby, Ryan also throws a really, really good fastball. Ryan’s fastball posted a -21 run value in 2022. Ryan’s fastball also was thrown to an opponent wOBA of .268, 25.8% whiff percentage, and a 27.1% K%. Ryan’s fastball unfortunately is the only pitch that he throws to a significantly negative rate, which is good considering he relies on it 60.1% of the time. Going back to Ryan’s full arsenal though, he throws 4 of his 5 pitches to a total movement of 10 inches or above, with his changeup being the best at 20.1 inches. It is important to note that Ryan is not an overwhelmingly fast pitcher, with his fastest being his fastball at 92 MPH. But, I think it’s important to note that due to his fastball recording spin rates of up to 2,194 RPM, his fastball is very deceptive. In conclusion, I think that Joe Ryan should be a lock on any pitching outlooks going into 2023.

Pitcher #3: Nick Lodolo

Lodolo, the first lefty on this list, is another no-brainer given his great 2022 rookie season. In his 2022 campaign, Lodolo pitched to 131 strikeouts in 103.1 innings, 11.41 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 29.7 K%, 8.8% BB%, 3.97 xERA, and a 1.8 fWAR. While it is important to note Lodolo’s struggles when it comes to walks, there is no denying that Lodolo was a great strikeout arm in 2022. Lodolo ranked in the top 19% or better in 2022 in whiff percentage and K%. Lodolo also ranked in the top 38% or better in xBA, xSLG, fastball velocity, fastball spin, and curveball spin. As for Lodolo’s pitches, he goes after hitters with 4 pitches. A 4-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, and changeup. Uniquely, Lodolo unlike Kirby and Ryan balances his pitch usage between his 4 pitches. Along with balancing his pitch usage, Lodolo also stays pretty balanced when it comes to how good they are. Lodolo’s best pitch though is probably his 2733 RPM curveball. His curveball generated an opponent wOBA of .256, and a 46% whiff percentage. Although Lodolo’s curveball seems to be the best when it comes to pitch analytics, Lodolo’s sinker generates a -4 run value. Along with this, all 4 of his pitches have total movement of 14.6 inches or above. Again, all things considered I think not being on the Lodolo train by season’s beginning is a huge mistake. Lodolo is a safe bet to have a great 2023 season.

Pitcher 4: Erik Swanson

Swanson, a Blue Jays trade acquisition in the 2022 off-season might’ve been one of the most underrated pickups of the off-season. In 2022 with the Mariners, Swanson pitched to 70 strikeouts in 53.2 innings, 11.74 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, 34% K%, 4.9% BB%, 2.3 xERA, and a 1.7 fWAR. Given all of those numbers, it’s very clear Swanson had an incredible 2022 season. It’s also important to note that Lodolo ranked in the top 22% in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, and chase rate. Most of those categories Swanson actually ranks in the top 10% or better in all of baseball in. Swanson being a typical reliever, attacks hitters with three pitches, his 4-seam fastball, split-finger, and a slider. Both Swanson’s 4-seamer and spitter have negative run values of -5 or better. Swanson’s fastball is probably one of baseball’s best for a reliever, pitching to an opponent wOBA of .237, a whiff percentage of 29.3%, 36.3% K%, and overall shutting hitters down. Swanson also throws a really good splitter, limiting hitters to an opponent wOBA of .162, 28.8% whiff percentage, 34.9 K%, and being a thorn in hitters’ sides. Both Swanson’s fastball and splitter have 10 or more inches of break. It’s important to note that there may be an adjustment period for Swanson coming to Toronto, especially after the Rogers’ Centre dimension changes this upcoming season. But, overall I think that Swanson is another really safe bet for a great 2023.

Pitcher #5: Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown is coming off of a small, but great sample size in 2022. In 7 games, Brown pitched to 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings, 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 27.5% K%, 8.8% BB%, 2.96 xERA, and a 0.6 fWAR. Granted, this is an incredibly small sample size so there aren’t as many numbers to go over or a full season example of Brown’s potential, but Brown was great in 2022. Brown also ranked in the top 11% in fastball velocity, clocking in at 96.6 MPH. Brown attacks hitters with 5 pitches, including a 4-seam fastball, curveball, slider, splitter, and a sinker. Although it was only 7 games, Brown had 4 of his 5 pitches record negative run values in 2022. Brown also has 4 pitches register spin of 2100 RPMs or more, which is all really good. Brown had three pitches with a whiff percentage of 19% or better. Brown also throws 3 of his pitches to opponents for a wOBA of less than .300. Bringing it back to the fact that Brown has little time so far in his big league career, there isn’t a whole lot to base a case off of, but I made the most out of the numbers he’s recorded. I do think that Brown is a must watch pitcher in 2023, as he should continue to develop to be the next Astros ace.