Today, we will be continuing and finishing my series on 5 hitters and 5 hitters I like and don’t like for 2023. With the 2023 MLB season right around the corner, now’s the time to finish making predictions for the upcoming season. As the season progresses, it should be a treat to see which players we were right about.

Pitcher #1: José Berríos

Berríos, a 2021 trade acquisition by the Toronto Blue Jays has been quite underwhelming since the trade went down. In 2022, Berríos pitched to 149 strikeouts in 172 innings pitched, a 7.8 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 19.8% K%, 6% BB%, 5.11 xERA, 4.13 SIERA, and a 1.1 fWAR. These numbers are all very underwhelming, especially considering the big extension the Blue Jays gave Berríos after the trade. Berríos also ranked in the bottom 15% of MLB in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and whiff percentage. These numbers are also really underwhelming especially when you consider the package Toronto gave up for him, expecting an elite starter. When it comes to Berríos’ weapons, he attacks hitters with 5 pitches. He throws a slurve, 4-seamer, sinker, changeup, and a curveball. Out of these 5 pitches, Berríos throws 3 of them to positive run values, the worst being his 4-seam fastball with an abysmal +17 run value. This is of course really concerning alone, but especially gets worrisome when you see that these 3 pitches make up 43.5% of Berríos’ pitch usage. Along with this, Berríos throws 3 pitches to a wOBA of .317 or above if you exclude his curveball which he only threw 6 times. Another concern for Berríos would be the fact he pitches to contact, and with the new Rodgers Centre dimensions, an increase in Berríos’ home run rates could significantly occur in 2023. Overall, Berríos looks extremely concerning heading into 2023.

Pitcher #2: Reid Detmers

Detmers, a former top 10 pick back in 2020, had a solid 2022. The lefty pitched to 122 strikeouts in 129 innings, 8.51 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 22.6% K%, 8.5% BB%, 4.05 xERA, 4.12 SIERA, and a 2.3 fWAR. Even with these numbers being overall decent, Detmers shows some serious concerns when it comes to his game. Detmers ranked in the bottom 50% of MLB in every percentile ranking, which includes average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, K%, BB%, whiff percentage, chase rate, fastball velocity, fastball spin, curve spin, and extension. As for Detmers’ pitches, he attacks hitters with a 4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, and a sinker. Detmers was overall positive with his pitches, having 3 pitches record negative run values. Overall, opponents saw Detmers well though as he recorded an opponent xwOBA of .312 in 2022. Overall, I think that the case is there to bet against Detmers in 2023, as he was around average in 2022 or worse overall.

Pitcher #3: Framber Valdez

Valdez, a left-handed workhorse is coming off of a 2022 season where he gained a lot of praise. In 2022, Valdez pitched to 194 strikeouts in 201.1 innings, 8.67 K/9, 3 BB/9, 23.5% K%, 8.1% BB%, 3.31 xERA, 3.14 SIERA, and a 4.4 fWAR. These numbers are good, but there are many areas of concern when it comes to Valdez’s play. Firstly, Valdez ranked in the bottom 32% or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, chase rate, and fastball velocity. These numbers paired with Valdez’s high 41.4% hard hit percentage help support the narrative that Valdez struggles with pitching to soft contact. Valdez has shown he can be elite, but his struggles with hard contact skills make me really concerned going forward. Valdez throws 5 pitches, including a sinker, curveball, cutter, changeup, and a 4-seam fastball. Valdez was overall really efficient with his pitch usage, having 4 of those 5 pitches thrown for negative run values. Hitters seemed to see Valdez’s sinker and 4-seamer well, both having an opponent wOBA of .359 or higher. It is important to also note that Valdez did not throw one pitch for a hard hit percentage under 32.7%. All things considered, Valdez has shown he can be really, really good, but his large hard hit rate stats make for a concerning case for Valdez in 2023.

Pitcher #4: Adam Wainwright

Wainwright, coming off of an overall emotional 2022 season as he played beside his battery mate Yadier Molina, and first baseman Albert Pujols for the final time. Overall though, Wainwright arguably should’ve called it quits as well. In 2022, Wainwright pitched to 143 strikeouts in 191.2 innings, 6.71 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 17.8% K%, 6.7% BB%, 4.53 xERA, 4.34 SIERA, and a 2.8 fWAR. These numbers really aren’t very good, but that’s expected with Wainwright’s age. Though, Wainwright was also in the bottom 23% or worse in xERA/xWOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%, whiff percentage, chase rate, and fastball velocity. It’s also important to note that Wainwright’s velocity has fallen off of a cliff the last few seasons. In 2022, Wainwright did not throw a pitch over 88.6 MPH, and threw as slow as 72.8 MPH. This is really concerning considering the trend of higher velocity in baseball nowadays. Wainwright maintains a relatively good set of walk numbers, having a 2.54 BB/9, and a 6.7% BB% as I previously stated in the beginning of this section. With it being Wainwright’s last season, I wish him the best. But from an analytics standpoint, I can’t help but be concerned for him this upcoming season.

Pitcher #5: Logan Gilbert

Gilbert, a former first round pick, is coming off of a season where he was solid, gaining a lot of praise from analysts around the league. Though, this praise may not have been fully accurate. In 2022, Gilbert pitched to 174 strikeouts in 185.2 innings, 8.43 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 22.7% K%, 6.4% BB%, 4.11 xERA, 3.84 SIERA, and a 3.2 fWAR. These numbers are decent, but definitely not deserving of the full praise Gilbert was getting in the beginning of 2022. Along with this, Gilbert also showed concerns in his percentile rankings. Gilbert ranked in the bottom 12% or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, chase rate, and curve spin. This also isn’t even mentioning the fact that Gilbert ranked in the bottom 37% or worse in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, whiff percentage, and fastball spin. Gilbert really struggled when it came to limiting hard hits, having a 45.6% hard hit percentage. Gilbert attacked hitters with 5 pitches in 2022, consisting of a 4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, and a sinker. Gilbert through 3 of his pitches to a hard hit percentage over 41.3%, and wOBAs over .301. Gilbert could succeed in 2023 if he lowers his hard hit stats, but all things considered, I am very concerned about Gilbert in 2023.