Though the Rule 5 draft isn’t until December, it is never too early to look ahead at who is at risk of being selected, and who should be protected. I’ll break it down into three categories; locks, should be protected, and make a strong case. 

Rule 5 Locks

INF Nick Gonzales is a lock to be protected. The 2020 1st round pick out of New Mexico State was one of the most promising looking players out of Pirates camp this year, but did not make the opening day roster due to options and management of his future. Nick’s 2022 was a roller coaster, including an injury that kept him sidelined for a couple months. But, he bounced back strongly to end his AA campaign. Gonzales is currently slashing around a .250 average with 20RBIs, and strong defensive play. Nick should be a member of the Pirates roster fairly soon looking at the infield depth. But if not, he’ll surely be protected by the December rule 5 deadline. 

RHP Quinn Priester is another lock. The 2019 1st round pick from Glendale Heights, Illinois, has proven he can handle the pressure of being a #1 starter at every level, including AAA. After a rough start, Quinn won 4 straight starts in May and has dipped his total ERA to 4.38 after being just under 8 in the start of May. Quinn has the makings of a future ace in the Pirates rotation, possibly as soon as late 2023. 

Should be Protected

RHP Carmen Mlodzinski should be protected. He’s had an interesting career so far, as he’s been moved to the bullpen after a rough 2022. He was drafted in 2020 out of South Carolina, with hopes to be a starter. He did solid work in Greensboro in 2021 but, he had some issues in Altoona. Carmen’s move to the bullpen is looking to be a great move for him, as he holds a 3.30 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. His potential is through the roof, and he should be protected from the draft, but I can see him being added to the roster sooner than then. 

RHP Kyle Nicolas is another potential selection. As the key piece from the Jacob Stallings trade, a 2nd round pick out of Ball State, had the looks to be a star in the making. Similar to Carmen, 2022 was not the best of years but 2023 has become a great year for Nicholas, including AA pitcher of the month in May. Nicolas should be getting promoted to Indianapolis within the next month or so. AAA should be the deciding factor on whether he gets protected or not. Odds at the moment are in his favor. 

INF Tsung-Che Cheng looks to also be protected. He draws a comparison to Liover Peguero in the sense where he should be protected before even taking a pitch of AA ball. Tsung played for Team Taiwan in the WBC, and looked really good seeing professional pitches. This year, Cheng has looked really well hitting for a .295 average and being a player who gets on base. He isn’t the flashiest name, but this player has the tools to be a solid MLB player, speed, defensive ability, strong baseball knowledge, he looks a lot like Adam Frazier, or Ji-Hwan Bae. He should be protected. 

Making a Case for Protection

INF Maikol Escotto is making a big case. He passed through the rule 5 draft last year with ease and should again this year, but it doesn’t take away from the raw talent he possesses. Escotto is still finding his way with his bat and defenses, but his potential is what could scare the Pirates into protecting him come December. 

OF Matt Gorski is making a big case to be protected. Gorski hits home runs non stop. Strikeouts are his problem though, and continue to hold him back. He wasn’t protected in last year’s draft, and passed through. He will eventually be a major leaguer, but his time isn’t now but his potential may intrigue a team to take a chance on him. 

INF Malcom Nunez has a big argument to be protected. He came over in the Jose Quintana trade, and people thought he was a sure lock in last year’s rule 5 draft. However, he wasn’t protected nor selected by another team. Nunez’s power is off the charts, and his defense is about as good as Carlos Santana’s. He’s currently at AAA Indianapolis with about a .250 average and 25 RBIs. He should be pass through the draft unscathed again, but he’s a candidate that could be protected. 

OF Hudson Head has a chance to be protected. One of the big names coming back in the Joe Musgrove trade, Head made his professional debut with the Pirates organization. He has hit the ball decent throughout his last 3 seasons as he still tries to emerge as a big prospect. 

OF Sammy Siani has a very interesting argument. Sammy should have the slight edge over Hudson I believe. He was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but provides more in the outfield. Both players are still trying to find their way, but I believe they both will be left unprotected and survive the draft. 

UTIL Jase Bowen is making a very strong case for his addition to the 40-man roster. The ultimate Pittsburgh Pirate; plays every position and plays it well. We all love the hometown boy living out his dream playing for his childhood team. He was drafted right out of high school and has made an immediate impact. Bowen passed right through Bradenton and up to Greensboro to finish 2022. He ran it back with the hoppers, and so far here in 2023, and he’s hitting about .250 average with 36 RBIs. His versatility and ability offensively and defensively makes him a value asset to the Pirates, which could lead to him getting protected come December. 

RHP Cam Junker has an interesting case as well. Quite possibly the most intriguing player on this list. No one expected Colin Selby to be protected last year, but he was. Relievers are at an all time premium. Junker stands 6’5 and was a 10th round pick out of Notre Dame in 2019. 2022 was Junkers’ statement year, flying through Greensboro, dominating and getting promoted to AA towards the end of the year. This year he’s continued that dominance with a 1.85 ERA and a strikeout per inning. He’s a guy who you can rely on to get you 3-6 outs, and 2 solid innings of work. Though he’s not the flashy name, he’s a necessity on a big league roster. If the Pirates don’t protect him, he could easily be swooped by another squad. Unfortunately, he does not have any video.

Others notable players who are eligible: INF Andres Alvarez, RHP Braxton Ashcraft, RHP JC Flowers, OF Connor Scott, INF Aaron Shackelford, RHP Logan Hoffman, RHP Brennan Malone, OF Matt Frazier, SS Dariel Lopez, C Dylan Shockley, and INF Alex Mojica. These players are not expected to be protected if the rule 5 draft happened today, but an impressive rest of the season could provide these players with a stronger case to be protected from rule 5.