Joe Ryan, a 6’2″/205 lbs right-handed pitcher for the Minnesota Twins has been breaking out to a new extent this year. After coming to Minnesota in a trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, the young righty hasn’t looked back at all. Since joining the big league rotation, Ryan has been nothing but a diamond in the rough for the Twins. Ryan has been posting elite numbers for almost three seasons, but has still been shown little respect as a top pitcher in the game. But, after incredible steps forward during the 2023 season, this needs to change. Today, we’ll take a deep dive into the numbers, and what exactly makes Ryan so great.

Joe Ryan’s Fastball

Joe Ryan’s fastball is without a doubt one of the main reasons he’s been so successful. But why is this? So far in 2023, Ryan’s fastball has been sitting around 92.5 MPH. While this may not be the flashiest, triple digit heater, Ryan’s fastball has some of the best spin in all of baseball, making it incredibly hard to hit. Due to it’s high, elite spin, Ryan’s fastball appears to hitters to be coming in much faster than it actually is, and in some cases it may even appear to hitters as rising. Ryan’s fastball currently averages about 2,200 RPM, which is a pretty good margin to create these illusions to hitters. Ryan’s fastball produces a 97 on the active spin scale, 18.2 total inches of movement, and an axis of about 1:15, making this pitch easily one of the hardest to hit in all of baseball.

Now, this fastball efficiency isn’t something exclusive to Ryan, as it’s something that’s made other pitchers such as Christian Javier very difficult for hitters to face. The rising illusion paired with the illusion of late run makes Ryan’s fastball almost impossible to hit well. All of this shows even more when you check out the numbers. Ryan’s fastball has a run value of -16, which is an incredibly impressive mark. Ryan’s fastball also produces a wOBA of just .240, a 27% whiff percentage, and 30.5% K%.

As you can see, Ryan’s fastball is incredibly effective, which makes him very effective on the mound. This helps even more when you see that Ryan throws his pitch almost 60% of the time, which is really encouraging to see that he’s using his best pitches the most. Ryan’s fastball has produced 61 strikeouts as of the time I’m writing this, which is a very impressive mark considering off-speed pitches typically produce the highest amount of strikeouts. All things considered, Ryan’s fastball is easily one of the best pieces of his game, and it’s truly a huge factor as to why he’s so effective.

Limiting Base Runners and Barrels

Another speciality of Ryan’s game has been his ability to prevent base runners and barrels. Although it may seem obvious, this is a clear-cut way to succeed. Ryan is an expert when it comes to control, as he manages to prevent walks at an incredible rate. He currently ranks in the top 3% of MLB when it comes to BB%, with a 4.1% BB%, and he has just a 1.44 BB/9, which just goes to show just how good he is at limiting walks. Walks are known to be a pitchers death sentence, so eliminating these at all cost is an easy way to succeed.

Ryan is also one of baseball’s best barrel limiters, which is something that has definitely helped him throughout his MLB career. While his hard hit rates have room for improvement, seeing that Ryan eliminates true barrels is definitely a step in the right direction. Ryan currently ranks in the top 12% when it comes to barrel percentage, which is an incredible feat for the young star. Ryan has just a 4.4% barrel percentage, which is impressive in it’s own right. But, when you take into consideration that his barrel percentage dropped from 8.6% in 2022, to the previously mentioned 4.4% in 2023, it becomes even more impressive.

Elite Off-speed and Deception

Ryan’s fastball isn’t his only impressive swing and miss pitch, as he possesses a splitter, sweeper, and a slider. Which one of these is the best though? His splitter. Ryan’s splitter is almost as effective as his heater, making it an amazing pair for his fastball. Ryan’s splitter averages just 1,320 RPM, making it an incredibly effective pitch. His splitter averaging low RPM compared to his fastball, can sometimes give his splitter a knuckling effect, making it a really hard pitch for hitters to recognize, and get ahold of. Ryan throws his split finger just over 27% of the time, and so far this season, it’s produced 28 strikeouts, which is an impressive margin. Ryan’s splitter produces an opponent wOBA of just .172, which shows how extremely effective it is. His splitter produces even more impressive metrics, such as a 21.9% whiff percentage, 18.7% put away percentage, 12.2 inches of total movement, and a -8 run value. Ryan is also elite at producing high chase rates, as he ranks in the top 1% of baseball in that area.

While Ryan’s splitter is overwhelmingly his best breaking ball, his sweeper has been a really good option for him as well. After working with Driveline to improve his sweeper this past off-season, Ryan has followed the trend of MLB and has used it as a good option to get swings. Ryan’s sweeper has generated a 23.1% whiff percentage, which shows it can be really effective, even with him not using it as much. Ryan’s sweeper has generated 14.6 inches of horizontal break, which is something that hitters will always have to keep in mind Ryan can throw.

Ryan also has an advantage when it comes to his release point. Ryan’s release point is very unique, especially since it’s built for tunneling. Ryan’s tunneling is something pitchers can only dream of having, which is another reason why his splitter is so effective. A sharp drop off paired with a fastball with elite spin is built for success.

Conclusion

As we’ve now established, Ryan is incredible all across the board, and he has incredible abilities that let him achieve this. From elite off-speed, to eliminating barrels and base runners, to having a great fastball, Ryan is incredible all across the board. And after his true breakout in 2023, it’s finally time we start treating him like the top 15 pitcher he is. Joe Ryan is incredible, and it’s time to get on the hype train before it’s too late.