The MLB most valuable player award is one of the most prestigious awards a player can win for their single season performances. Typically, as teams enter the home stretch the standout candidates start to make the race more simple to decide on. But, in 2023, this is not the case. When it comes to the National League especially, this race is insanely close. From the likes of Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuña, to first baseman such as Freddie Freeman, and Matt Olson, the National League has never had this much depth in it’s MVP race. From top to bottom, there’s an argument to be made for any of these players, but the two that seem to be the front runners are Ronald Acuña, and Mookie Betts. In today’s article, we’ll take a deep dive into the MVP cases for both of these players, and what gives both of them solid odds to win the MVP award this season.

When examining an MVP race, the first thing that has to be done is to establish a case for both players. As I previously mentioned, this year’s race to me is between Ronald Acuña, and Mookie Betts, meaning these will be the two I will be establishing cases for.

Establishing a Case for Mookie Betts

When it comes to Mookie Betts, you’re getting a 4-tool caliber player, and stellar athlete on the diamond. Mookie previously won the American League MVP award back in 2018, and his 2023 season has already arguably been better than his previous MVP season. As of the time I’m writing this article, Mookie has hit a career high 38 homers, driven in 98 runs, 13.1% BB%, 15.4% K%, .315/.409/.619 slashline, .429 wOBA, 176 wRC+, and a 7.7 fWAR. As you can probably tell with the numbers I provided, Mookie is playing the best baseball of his life, and is currently one of MLB’s best players.

Mookie currently ranks 4th in all of baseball in homers with 38, which is very impressive, especially since Mookie generally isn’t known for his incredible power. Betts currently ranks third in all of baseball in wRC+ (174 wRC+) for hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, only falling behind Corey Seager (179 wRC+), and Shohei Ohtani (180 wRC+). If you haven’t noticed already, Mookie is responsible for the highest wRC+ of a National League player, a very impressive feat. Mookie not only has the highest fWAR for any player in the National League, but the highest fWAR in all of baseball with a 7.7 fWAR. To put it simply, this means that Mookie has been the player with the highest value in all of baseball, providing his team with almost 8 wins. Betts currently has a wOBA of .416, which is the third highest mark in all of baseball.

If he continues playing at this pace, Mookie will likely finish the season with almost 10 fWAR, a mark that is almost never eclipsed, and when it is, it’s by baseball’s most elite hitters. In addition, he will likely finish with a wRC+ over 175, which is also an incredibly rare occurrence. Although it may not be the most eye-popping ability, Mookie has made starts in both the middle-infield, and outfield this season, something that’s hard enough to do in general, let alone at the high level Betts has done both. When taking into consideration that MVP stands for the Most Valuable Player, Mookie’s ability to play wherever he’s needed is a really strong thing to have on his resume. On another note, the Dodgers have the second best record in all of baseball, as well as a fantastic roster, yet Mookie still leads the team in homers, OPS, slugging, walks, RBI, fWAR, and much more. I don’t know about you, but seeing Mookie stand out far and beyond above elite hitters such as Freddie Freeman while also sharing the field with them is very impressive.

Mookie Betts has consistently showcased his exceptional skills on both offense and defense throughout the 2023 season, making him a standout candidate for the NL MVP. Betts’ impressive batting average, combined with his power at the plate and ability to deliver in clutch moments, has been a driving force behind the success of his team this year. His versatility as an outfielder has resulted in numerous game-changing plays, demonstrating his invaluable contribution to his team’s defense and overall performance. Mookies overall attitude and leadership among teammates, the game, opposing player‘s, and the fans just changes the game completely in many aspects.

Drake Talko on Mookie Betts, and his MVP odds.

If we’re going to directly compare Betts and Acuña, Betts leads Acuña in most categories. Betts currently has a higher fWAR, higher wRC+, more home runs, higher wOBA, higher walk rate, higher sweet spot percentage, higher slugging percentage, higher OPS, and he’s a better defender via OAA. As you can see, Betts clears Acuña in most notable offensive categories, which should give provide him with the immediate upper hand in the MVP race. However, this is not the case as Acuña has made quite the interesting argument for himself as well. Below is a quote from Ryan Garcia, a personal friend of mine and writer for Empire Sports Media regarding why he thinks Mookie should win MVP.

“Mookie currently leads the National League in wRC+, fWAR, rWAR, and OPS. What Acuña is doing is incredible and this race isn’t close to over, but it’s hard to not win the MVP and finish first in all those metrics.”

Ryan Garcia of Empire Sports Media on the case for Mookie to win MVP.

Establishing a Case for Ronald Acuña

When it comes to Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., you’re guaranteed to get a 4-tool player, as well as a player who shows more emotion than anyone else on the diamond. Similarly to Betts, Acuña certainly has his own long list of accolades. Acuña broke into the MLB during the 2018 season, where he would play incredible, and take home the National League Rookie of the Year Award, while also coming in 12th place in National League MVP voting. Although he doesn’t have an MVP like Mookie, Acuña has certainly played up to this caliber for multiple seasons now. Acuña also has two silver sluggers to his name, as well as four all-star appearances in just 5 full seasons. In this time, Acuña has finished 5th in MVP voting, as well as 12th two times. As of the time I’m writing this article, Acuña has hit 32 homers, driven in 85 runs, 11.3% BB%, 11.8% K%, .337/.419/.582 slashline, .424 wOBA, 169 wRC+, 63 stolen bases, and a 7.0 fWAR. Given the numbers presented, Acuña is without a doubt one of baseball’s best players, and he’s without a doubt put himself right in the heart of the MVP race.

Acuña is currently tied for 9th in all of baseball in home runs with his number of 32, a really impressive mark for Acuña considering he is a leadoff hitter for the majority of the time. In addition, Acuña is right up there in the wRC+ leaders for hitters with 400 plate appearences, as he ranks 4th in all of baseball (169 wRC+), only falling behind Mookie Betts (176 wRC+), Corey Seager (179 wRC+), and Shohei Ohtani (180 wRC+). Acuña‘s fWAR of 7.0 is the second highest mark in all of baseball, only falling short of his fellow National League star, Mookie Betts. Acuña currently has 63 stolen bases, which leads all of baseball by 9 steals. Acuña is also 4th in all of baseball in wOBA, only behind Seager, Ohtani, and Betts. In addition, he is the only player in history to hit 30 homers, and steal 60 bases in a season. At the rate he’s currently playing, he could very well be the first to join the 35/70 club, 40/70 club, or any other club beyond the 30/60 club. In terms of historical value, Acuña is currently having a season with a power and stolen base combo which has never been seen before. Acuña has also hit the hardest ball all season, with an exit velocity of 121.2 MPH, which is also the sixth hardest hit ball in the statcast era.

In addition to Acuña having the potential to keep setting records with his combination of power and speed, if Acuña continues to play at his current rate, he could finish the season with more than 8 fWAR, a mark which isn’t to be taken lightly. In addition, Acuña could potentially set a career high for himself in homers, as he’s currently just 9 homers away from his previous career high of 41. Acuña has been arguably the best hitter on the Atlanta Braves as well, which is a tremendous feat given the amount of super stars on their roster. Acuña is currently tied for second in homers, while being first in hits, doubles, stolen bases, average, on base percentage, and OPS. Acuña being this good of a hitter on a team with the caliber of the Braves really speaks volume about his overall game. One of the main things taken into consideration with Acuña’s game is the ability to be the best player on the best team in baseball, which shows just how valuable to his team he is. Playing alongside stars such as Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, and more and still being the team’s best player is something that should not be taken lightly.

Although Acuña is beaten by Mookie in most categories, he leads in a few of his own. These categories include hits, fewer strikeouts, stolen bases, BABIP, batting average, on base percentage, xwOBA, and barrel percentage. Although it’s not much, Acuña leading in a lot of these categories will catch the eye of the more casual fan, and more of the BBWAA tends to vote that way.

Balancing Historical Significance and Advanced Stats in the MVP Voting

When it comes to the BBWAA, they tend to vote more towards the more basic statistics, as well as historical significance, rather than the better overall player. When it comes to the Betts and Acuña debate, there’s a clear difference between the two. Acuña leads in more traditional statistics such as average, fewer strikeouts, and on base percentage. Mookie on the other hand, leads in wRC+, wOBA, and other advanced statistics. So how should the baseball writers value the statistics and historical significance?

In my opinion, advanced statistics will always provide a truer representation of a player’s skillset, and where they rank amongst other players in baseball. Given this fact of analytics being a truer representation of a player’s skills, they should without a doubt be valued higher than traditional statistics. Given this fact, Mookie not only clears in more statistical categories in general, but he especially clears in advanced statistics such as wRC+ and fWAR. fWAR is arguably one of the most valuable statistics in MVP voting, as it gives a clear distinction of a player’s value to their team, by directly representing how many more wins a player contributes to their team. Similarly to fWAR, wRC+ is also a clear distinction of where a player ranks amongst hitters in MVP voting. This is due to the fact that wRC+ is a statistic that shows how much better a player is than league average, by using 100 as average, and any number above being what percentage better a player is than the average Major Leaguer. Given this fact, it can clearly be used to represent how much value a player has generated during his season. For example, Mookie’s 174 wRC+, and 7.6 fWAR directly show how much more value Betts brought to his team, as opposed to Acuña’s 169 wRC+, and 7.0 fWAR. Although wRC+ and fWAR shouldn’t be the only two statistics used when deciding an MVP award, they should be valued far heavier than statistics such as average and other traditional statistics. But, writers will need to find a happy medium between all stats.

As for balancing Acuña’s historic 30/60 season amongst the rest of the statistics, this is more of a challenge. Although this record setting season for Acuña is historic, there is still the argument that due to MLB’s new rules, the stolen bases portion of this historic season has become significantly easier to achieve than previous years. While I’m not exactly saying that this is the case, it’s certainly something that needs to be discussed in this year’s MVP decision. As for how I’d personally use it in deciding an MVP winner? I would compare statistics more than anything, but I would also factor in the 30/60 season as part of almost it’s own category. I would weigh it in the decision, but not as heavily as many people would.

When it comes to deciding MVP awards, the conversation and decisions are already tough enough. But when you throw records, and more into a race that is already very close, the challenge becomes much harder. But, when Mookie is leading the National League in most categories, especially the more important ones, it becomes harder and harder to look the other way just because of history being made. Regardless of who wins though, this MVP race is so exciting due to the fact that it is so close. Mookie and Acuña’s stats are so close that one rough week from either of them could completely change the frontrunner, which means it will come down to the wire, making it incredibly exciting.

Conclusion and My Thoughts

While the National League MVP race is far from over, Mookie Betts to me is the clear choice for National League MVP. Like I said before, one bad week for either Acuña or Betts could completely change the MVP race, but as of right now, it’s really hard to argue against Mookie when looking at his numbers versus Ronald, even given the 30/60 season Ronald has had. My argument for him to win MVP is presented at the beginning of the article.

Regardless of who wins the MVP award, this race has been one of the best MVP races the game of baseball has ever seen, and MLB fans all across the world should realize just how lucky they are to be witnessing this historic race. One thing is for certain, and that is the fact that this race will come down to the very end, and it will be exciting the entire time.