Before the 2023 season began, I put together a four part series of articles that were focused around the trying to predict 10 breakout players, and 10 players I thought would underperform based on analytics. And now that the 2023 season has concluded, I can finally reflect back on these picks, and how I did. In today’s article, I’ll be reviewing the hitter portion of my picks, and grading them on a -3 to +3 scale, and then adding them together for a grand total at the end of the article. Without further ado, let’s get into reviewing my 2023 breakout picks.
Hitter #1: Matt Olson | Grade: +3
Ahead of the 2023 season MLB announced it’s plan to proceed forward with the shift restrictions, and when looking at the numbers, Matt Olson fell victim to the shift almost more than anyone. With this being said, he was a clear breakout pick for me. And in this season, Matt Olson was spectacular. Olson hit 54 homers, 14.4% BB%, .413 wOBA, 160 wRC+, and a 6.7 fWAR. When you look into these numbers, you can tell from the start that Olson’s season was one for the ages, but when you examine key details I highlighted preseason, you see that this pick was even more accurate. Again, I highlighted Olson’s struggles with the shift, and it was obvious to see how this changed in 2023. His BABIP saw an increase of 0.028, from .274 to .302. I also highlighted his ability to hit the ball very hard, which also saw an increase this season. Olson’s average exit velocity saw a rise from 92.9 MPH to 93.7 MPH, his barrel percentage saw a rise from 13.6% to 16.4%, and his max exit velocity rose from 116.8 to 118.6. I also touched on his good eye at the plate, which also got better in 2023, as his BB% rose from 10.7% to 14.4%. With all of these improvements, and Olson arguably being one of the top 3 National League hitters this season, this pick was a slam dunk, and I give it a grade of +3.
Hitter #2: Corey Seager | Grade: +3
Heading into the 2023 season, Corey Seager was another hitter who would be impacted heavily by the shift ban being implemented. During the 2022 season Seager was shifted on 96.5% of the time, which was one of the highest marks in all of baseball. And since the shift limit, Corey Seager has gone from good, to one of the better players in the league. Seager hit 33 homers, 9.1% BB%, .419 wOBA, 169 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR. As a result of the shift ban, Seager saw a BABIP increase of .098 points from .242 to .340, and a wOBA increase from .331 to .419. These are incredible changes, and Seager actually was one of the hitters who was most positively impacted. Similarly to Olson, Seager’s eye got better as he saw a BB% increase from 8.7% to 9.1%. In addition, his barrel percentage saw a huge increase from 10.5% to 15.2%, his average exit velocity increased from 91 MPH to 93.3 MPH, max exit velocity increase of 111.3 MPH to 114.3 MPH, and a hard hit percentage 45.5% to 53.2%. Seager also missed 43 games, which is just even more impressive when you consider his improvements. All things considered, Seager’s improvements were some of the best in baseball, and this pick was a slam dunk. With this, I give this pick a +3.
Hitter #3: Byron Buxton | Grade: -2
Out of the hitters I examined before the season, Byron Buxton was the right-handed hitter that I felt like had the best chance to have a breakout season in 2023. Buxton was shifted on almost 80% of the time, and he was significantly better without the shift. So taking this into consideration, people forgetting how good Buxton is, and the injuries he’s faced, I thought Buxton was an obvious pick to break out. But, he did quite the opposite. Buxton would play just 85 games, hit 17 homers, 10.1% BB%, .311 wOBA, 98 wRC+, and a 0.7 fWAR. The only positive takeaway from Buxton’s season, and my projections, was the fact that his BABIP slightly saw an increase, but overall Buxton significantly regressed this year. Not only was he a below average hitter by wRC+, but his barrel percentage, average exit velocity, sweet spot percentage, and hard hit percentage all saw significant decreases. Buxton’s strikeout percentage also ballooned to over 31%, which is very concerning. His offensive run value decreased from +7 to -4, which also wasn’t a good look. His xBA decreased as well, which is something I figured would increase with the shift restriction. When taking all of these decreases into consideration, and with Buxton barely playing once again, I think I mark this year as the year I give up on Byron Buxton. And with all of this being said, I give myself a -2 grade. This pick could’ve been worse, but it wasn’t a pretty one.
Hitter #4: Lars Nootbaar | Grade: +1
Lars Nootbaar was one of the players I looked forward to watching the most this year after his performance in the World Baseball Classic. And when looking at his underlying analytics, I thought he was a prime candidate to break out. Nootbaar would miss some time, and only play 117 games, but he would play really well during the time he was on the field. Nootbaar would hit 14 homers, 14.3% BB%, .344 wOBA, 118 wRC+, and a 3.2 fWAR. Nootbaar was shifted on over 50% of the time in 2022, making him another solid pick to raise his wOBA and BABIP, and he did just that. His BABIP rose from .248 to .307, and his wOBA rose just slightly from .342 to .344. Nootbaar has been known for having a really solid eye at the plate, and during the 2023 season, he cut down on his strikeout rate from 20.5% to 19.7%, and his walk rate stayed above 14%. Nootbaar’s average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage all took significant losses, but were still decent. This makes his season pretty intriguing. Nootbaar had a weird season in the sense that he got better in some areas, but saw some regression in other areas. And with that being said, I think it makes sense to give this pick a grade of +1. Next season, it’ll be interesting to hopefully see a full healthy season from Nootbaar.
Hitter #5: Garrett Mitchell | Grade: 0
Coming into his rookie season in 2023, the sky was the limit for Garrett Mitchell. However, a shoulder injury would sideline him for all but 19 games this year. So, with that being said, I cannot go over any numbers to judge my selection, making this an automatic no grade. I still stand by the fact that I believe Mitchell would’ve played well however, as he was off to a decent start before his shoulder injury. He would finish his 19 game season with 3 homers, 9.6% BB%, .326 wOBA, 103 wRC+, and a 0.4 fWAR. I wish Garrett all the best, and hope we get to see his talents shine during the 2024 season.
Hitter #6: Bobby Witt Jr. | Grade: -3
Coming into the 2023 season, Bobby Witt Jr. was coming off of a 20/20 rookie campaign, but the underlying analytics weren’t as good as people may have thought. With a wRC+ below the league average mark of 100, and poor offensive numbers, I thought this was an interesting pick to not preform well in 2023. However, I could not have been more wrong. Witt significantly improved his bat, hitting 30 homers, 5.8% BB%, .343 wOBA, 115 wRC+, and a 5.7 fWAR. Before the season, my main concern was his ability to hit fastballs. His run value against fastballs was -9 in 2022. He significantly improved this mark to a run value of +2 this season. Although this still isn’t incredible, the positive adjustment is spectacular. He also swung and missed significantly less than the year prior, as the rate improved from 25.2% to 22.6%. He raised his hard hit percentage against four seam fastballs by over 10%, as it went from 42.6% to 53.9%. I also expressed concern in Witt’s ability to know the strike zone, as he ranked in the bottom of baseball in chase rate and BB%. Witt’s BB% and chase rate still weren’t elite, but they significantly improved. Witt’s expected stats were some of the best in the league, as his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all ranked in the top 8% or better in all of baseball. All things considered, this pick was a huge miss on my part, and it was likely the worst of the 10 players I chose. Given this, I give this pick a -3.
Hitter #7: Jeremy Peña | Grade: +2
Jeremy Peña entered the 2023 season after a rookie campaign, where he was arguably the best hitter in the playoffs. Peña led the Astros to the 2023 World Series, where they would take the series easily. With how well Peña preformed, many people started calling him a top 10, or in some cases a top 5 shortstop in baseball. I saw this belief as far from the truth, as he was just around league average during the regular season. And this year, Peña saw some regression. In 150 games, he hit 10 homers, 6.8% BB%, .310 wOBA, 96 wRC+, and a 2.8 fWAR. I expressed concern in a few areas of Peña’s, but especially in his BB%. Although it improved from 3.9% to 6.8%, this mark is still not amazing. His average exit velocity stayed relatively the same at about 88 MPH. This isn’t great, and when paired with his huge decline in barrel percentage, this doesn’t make a great combination. The decline his barrel percentage saw was from 9.7%, to 4%. His xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA were towards the bottom of the MLB as well. His offensive run value of -4 was also in just the 30th percentile. This compared to his less than league average wRC+ made for a rough sophomore season for Peña. Given this, I give myself a +2 rating on this pick. One could argue that Peña had become widely overhyped, and with him playing almost the same as his rookie season in some areas, I think this is only deserving of a +2 instead of a +3.
Hitter #8: Nico Hoerner | Grade: 0
Nico Hoerner came into the 2023 season looking for a big season after signing a contract extension in the off-season. But, when looking at the underlying analytics, I thought that Nico Hoerner would be in for a season where he would slump a little bit. Instead, Hoerner put up a very similar 2023 as his 2022 season. Hoerner hit 9 homers, 7.1% BB%, .322 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 4.7 fWAR. Hoerner is not the type of player who hits the ball hard, and for long home runs. Hoerner’s barrel percentage of 2.6% in 2022 was one of the lowest marks in baseball, and it even got worse in 2023, as it dipped to 1.8%. Nico maintained a high ground ball rate of almost 50%, which compared to his incredibly low barrel percentage isn’t a good track for success. However, Nico still managed to put up an almost 5 fWAR season. But, the majority of his numbers looked very similar. His home run count dropped by just 1, his xwOBA only increased by .010 points, his wRC+ decreased by 4 points, and his K% only changed by 1%. Nico’s expected stats were also very similar, as his xBA and xSLG stayed almost the same as well. Hoerner really never saw a huge deviation in any of his statistics, as his average launch angle, sweet spot percentage, and even more all virtually stayed the same. With Hoerner having small increases and decreases in certain places, but mostly being the same, I don’t think I can give this a plus or minus grade. With that being said, I give myself a grade of 0 due to almost no major changes in his numbers.
Hitter #9: Ketel Marte | Grade: -3
Ketel Marte was coming off of a 2022 campaign which was one of his worst since 2019, but he rebounded in a big way in 2023. Before the season, I expressed my concern in many areas of his underlying analytics. But, Marte proved to be one of the biggest misses of the 10 players I tried to predict. This year, Marte hit 25 homers, 10.9% BB%, .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 4.2 fWAR. Marte was also a huge piece of the Arizona Diamondbacks World Series run, in which Marte set a record for consecutive games with a hit in the Postseason. His barrel percentage saw a big dip in 2022, which was one of my concerns with Marte. But, he raised his barrel percentage back up to 8%, which was a solid mark. Marte also saw a pretty sizable decline in his strikeout rate, as it went from 18.1% to 16.8%, which was a pretty solid mark. Marte’s wRC+ also saw a rebound, as it went from 103 to 127. Most of Marte’s expected stats either improved or stayed similar, which was also nice to see. I also expressed concern in Marte’s struggles against fastballs and sliders, where he’d post negative run values in 2022. But, Marte would hit most pitches well, but he would improve his run value against fastballs to +6, and his run value against sliders to +2. Taking this all into consideration, Marte proved me completely wrong, thus giving this pick a -3.
Hitter #10: Jared Walsh | Grade: +1
Coming off of the 2022 season, Jared Walsh was looking to return to his all-star form from just a season before. However, he did not do this at all. Walsh wasn’t an incredible hitter during the 2022 season, but he had some potentially positive underlying metrics. But, there was more bad than good, which was why I thought against Walsh. He only played 39 games in 2023, hitting 4 homers, 9.5% BB%, 38.8% K%, .222 wOBA, 33 wRC+, and a -0.9 fWAR. Due to Walsh only playing 39 games, talking about some of his metrics is a little unfair due to the fact that they were in a short period of time. But, Walsh’s main regression came from his barrel percentage decrease from 9.5% to 6.8%. His sweet spot percentage, hard hit percentage, strikeout rate, and his expected stats all dropped significantly. Walsh would then not play for the rest of the season, as the Angels decided to look in other areas for improvements. With Walsh being on a downward track already, this pick was probably one of the more obvious on this list, which is why I decided not to give myself anything higher than a +1 for this pick. I think when you consider all of the stats I mentioned, this grade is very fair.
BSBWRITES 
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