Before the 2023 MLB season began, I put together a series of articles revolved around trying to predict the seasons of 20 players total. I focused on 5 hitters and pitchers I liked, and 5 hitters and pitchers I was unsure about for the upcoming season. Now that the season has concluded, I can finally review my predictions. I already published my hitter breakout pick review late last month, so naturally it’s time to do the same for pitchers. Similarly to how I graded my hitter breakout picks, these players will be graded on a scale of +3 to -3. Without further ado, let’s take a look at how I did.

Pitcher #1: George Kirby | Grade: +3

After a solid rookie campaign in 2022, George Kirby was a name who stood out to me as a player with a lot of upside in his sophomore season. Kirby used his strong pitch mix to the best of his ability in 2022, making him an easy breakout pick. Kirby would record a really good sophomore season for the Seattle Mariners, as he’d strike out 172 batters in 190.2 innings pitched, 22.7% K%, 2.5% BB%, 120 ERA+, 3.82 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, and a 4.4 fWAR. Kirby would also go on to make his first MLB all-star team, representing the Seattle Mariners at their home park in the summer classic. Kirby was flawless when it came to limiting walks during his first season, and he only saw that improve in 2023. His BB% fell from 4.1% to 2.5% which was in the top 1% of all of baseball. As I previously mentioned, Kirby’s 6 pitch mix is a huge advantage for him, as he always keeps hitters guessing. Kirby’s 4-seam fastball is one of the most valuable fastballs in the league, as his run value of 14 was a very impressive mark. His fastball was more effective in 2022, but the rest of his pitches saw significant improvements. He recorded 3 pitches with run values over 4, and another additional pitch with a positive run value. Last season, Kirby posted just one pitch with a positive run value, so to see him throw 4 pitches effectively this year was really impressive. He changed his pitch usages as well, as his sinker and slider became his second and third most used pitches, as opposed to them being two of his least used pitches in his rookie year. George Kirby posted a 106 stuff+ which was one of the best marks in all of baseball, along with the third highest pitching+ of 109. His overall pitching run value of 23 was in the top 4% in all of baseball. All things considered, Kirby’s solid sophomore season lands him a +3 on this list.

Pitcher #2: Joe Ryan | Grade: +1

Joe Ryan was another young pitcher who came into 2023 with high expectations, and I fully believed he’d live up to them this year. Ryan was coming off of an encouraging 2022 season, and I bought into the hype. Ryan would prove me right, as he had a solid 2023 season in some areas. Joe Ryan recorded 197 strikeouts in 161.2 innings, 29.3% K%, 5.1% BB%, 95 ERA+, 3.53 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, and a 2.2 fWAR. Ryan began the 2023 season on an absolute tear, but began to slow down towards the end of the year. However, he still saw some significant improvements. Ryan’s strikeout numbers took a big step forward, as his K% improved just over 4%, and he struck out almost 50 more hitters than his previous season. Ryan also saw a huge step forward in his BB%, as it went from 7.8% to 5.1%, which was in the top 5% in all of baseball. Joe Ryan’s pitch usages saw a huge change, as he totally stopped using his changeup. But, his fastball provided a 13 run value which was great to see. On the other hand, his breaking balls all provided negative run values. Another important thing to point out is that Ryan has a very large difference in his expected ERA and FIP. His xERA of 3.53 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.51. His xFIP saw a similar change trend, as his xFIP of 3.76 was significantly lower than his FIP of 4.13. All things considered, Ryan saw improvements and struggles in multiple places, which is why I give this pick a grade of +1. With Ryan being a positive addition overall while improving, I think this is fair. But, he wasn’t overwhelmingly good enough to see a grade higher than that.

Pitcher #3: Nick Lodolo | Grade: 0

Nick Lodolo was yet another young player coming into the 2023 season with high expectations. Lodolo preformed well during his rookie season in 2022, and showed a lot of promise in many areas. I would predict Lodolo to take the next step in 2023 as a result, but he would be faced with an unfortunate injury. Lodolo would pitch just 7 games before his injury, which isn’t enough to judge his season. Given this, Lodolo earns a grade of a 0. I still think Lodolo provides a lot of potential upside in 2024, and I wish him nothing but the best on his road to recovery.

Pitcher #4: Erik Swanson | Grade: -1

Erik Swanson was coming into 2023 with high expectations, and he would have these expectations for a new team. Swanson was part of the trade that sent Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Seattle Mariners in the off-season. Swanson would put up a solid season, but he would definitely take a step backwards from his 2022 season. Swanson would record 75 strikeouts in 66.2 innings pitched, 28.6% K%, 8% BB%, 143 ERA+, 3.04 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, and a 0.9 fWAR. Swanson put up a good season overall, but he would see decreases in more areas than not. His hard hit percentage would see an increase of 10%, which wasn’t ideal to see by any means. This paired with his almost 3% increase in BB% make for a non ideal combination. His K%, xFIP, xERA, K%, and average exit velocity would all take pretty sizable decreases. His splitter run value would see a significant increase however, as it went from a 5 to a 14 this season. His 4-seam fastball would also be a solid pitch as well, as it would generate a run value of 2. However, his slider would get worse, going from -1 to -3. His pitching run value of 13 was in the top 16% in all of baseball. His whiff percentage would see a significant increase however, as it would go from a 29.4% to 32.6%. His opponent wOBA would go from .236 to .280, which is still good, but it’s never good to see a decrease. Especially in a breakout pick. When I was looking to grade this pick, it was a tough one for me. Swanson posted a really solid season, but he saw a lot of regressions. The point of my pick was to predict players who would get better, so due to that this pick gets a slight downgrade of -1. This isn’t to say that Swanson had a bad season whatsoever, but Swanson did regress slightly. Given this, I can’t give it a positive grade.

Pitcher #5: Hunter Brown | Grade: -2

Hunter Brown, the Houston Astros latest pitching development project entered 2023 coming off of a solid start to his big league career where he proved that he could become a really good pitcher at the Major League Level. In 7 games to start his career, he posted a 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings pitched, 27.5% K%, 8.8% BB%, 483 ERA+, 2.96 xERA, 2.78 xFIP, and a 0.6 fWAR. Brown’s 2022 season was a momentous step in his development, and with a clean delivery, many people were calling him the next Justin Verlander. However, with limited time under his belt, it’s not that easy to project. In his second season in 2023, Brown got the full big league experience, and he showed signs of brilliance but also failure. Brown posted 178 strikeouts in 155.2 innings pitched 26.8% K%, 8.3% BB%, 83 ERA+, 4.27 xERA, 3.52 xFIP, and a 1.8 fWAR. Although it wasn’t a horrible season, Hunter Brown’s path to the top now seems much harder than it felt before. Before the season, I really liked Brown’s ability to throw his fastball consistently around or above 96 MPH, which is incredibly valuable to him given his arsenal. His 4-seamer got decent lift this year with an IVB around 17, but his velocity saw a slight decrease. I also really liked his 5 pitch arsenal, which included multiple good breaking balls which played well off of his fastball. Brown’s solid run values were also super appealing, as every pitch was thrown positively in 2022. However, in 2023, Brown saw just 1 pitch record a positive run value. His curveball which was his worst pitch, went from +2, to -10 seemingly overnight. I also really liked his whiff rates, which actually saw an increase in almost every pitch. Brown unfortunately saw huge rises in his opponent wOBA, as his fastball for example, jumped from an opponent wOBA of just .249 in 2022, to .386 in 2023. Obviously with Brown’s limited time in the MLB in 2022, a regression to the mean is almost always expected, but this rise is beyond alarming. Brown also really struggled when it came to allowing hard hits, as his barrel percentage rose from 5.9% in 2022, to almost 11% in 2023. Not only this, but his hard hit rate stayed pretty high around the 44% mark. Brown buys himself some leeway with his high ground ball rate, but with this hard of contact consistently being allowed, it’s hard not to worry these hits will become balls hit in the gap or over the wall. Although his strikeout rates are still solid, Brown’s drop in xERA, and other areas make this for sure a step backward. Brown is still young and still has a lot of potential, but seeing Brown go from a potential #2-#3 starter in Houston to bullpen depth by the end of the year was a huge fall from grace.

Pitcher #6: José Berríos | Grade: -2

José Berríos came off of his 2022 season continuing his steady decline since being traded from the Minnesota Twins, and he was finally starting to set off alarm bells in a lot of people’s heads after his decline continued. However, Berríos totally turned things around this year, as he returned to his consistent form as a starting pitcher. In 2023, he posted 184 strikeouts in 189.2 innings pitched, 23.5 K%, 6.6% BB%, 116 ERA+, 4.55 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, and a 3.0 fWAR. Berríos really became Mr. Consistent like I said previously, as he was a really reliable arm in the Blue Jays rotation. Before the season, I highlighted that he ranked in the bottom 15% of MLB in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and whiff percentage which was incredibly concerning. However, Berríos wasn’t in the bottom 15% in any category in 2023. I also highlighted concerns with his 4 pitch arsenal, as his pitch usage made things incredibly difficult to positively project. For example, he threw his fastball at an abysmal -17 run value last season, which was very scary in the projecting process when you remember that it was his second most used pitch during that season. However, Berríos totally changed things around this year. Instead of continuing to throw his fastball at a terrible rate, Berríos would become a sinker heavy pitcher. This really helped him out, as his sinker was thrown for a +3 run value this year. This is especially helped his fastball play better off of the rest of his arsenal. Throwing a sinker the majority of the time made his 4-seamer much more effective at a +4 run value from the 3 spot in his arsenal. Also, he threw his slurve much less than before, as it went from his most used pitch to the second most used pitch. This was also really helpful as his slurve was able to be thrown with much more deception as a result. Berríos still doesn’t have perfect metrics across the board, especially going pitch by pitch, but this is much better than the year prior. Berríos going from a liability on the mound to totally revamping his arsenal and becoming way more consistent made this a miss on my projections, making this a -2.

Pitcher #7: Reid Detmers | Grade: 0

Reid Detmers, a former first round pick by the Angels back in 2020, was coming into the 2023 season looking to improve from his sophomore year. Detmers has never been a pitcher with ace stuff, but he’s always been solid. This year, he continued on the same path of improving in some areas but heavily decreasing in some areas too. He posted 168 strikeouts in 148.2 innings pitched, 26.1% K%, 9.3% BB%, 100 ERA+, 4.45 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, and a 2.5 fWAR. The numbers he put up in 2023 weren’t horrible, but they certainly didn’t stand out whatsoever. Detmers ranked in the bottom 50% of MLB in every percentile ranking in 2022, which includes average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, K%, BB%, whiff percentage, chase rate, fastball velocity, fastball spin, curve spin, and extension. This year, it was more of the same, but his fastball velocity, whiff percentage, K%, and barrel percentage ranking above the bottom 50% marker. Detmers’ individual pitches stayed around the same, but his real standout difference was with his 4-seam fastball. His 4-seam fastball went from a +5 run value pitch, to a -10 run value pitch almost overnight. I was mainly banking on Detmers to decline due to him pitching consistently mediocre up to this point, but he stayed similar to his previous numbers, only seeing improvements in a few areas. Due to this, I give this pick a zero because Detmers didn’t clearly get better or worse, making this pick about the same as it would’ve been the year before.

Pitcher #8: Framber Valdez | Grade: 0

Around the time I first projected Framber Valdez to regress during the upcoming season, a lot of people were saying he was positioned to be a future Cy Young winner, and not many people agreed with me. Valdez was coming off of a season where his development continued, and he cemented himself as a solid starter. In 2023, Valdez struck out 200 batters in 198 innings, 24.8 K%, 7.1% BB%, 122 ERA+, 4.33 xERA, 3.39 xFIP, and a 4.3 fWAR. There’s no doubt that Framber Valdez was a really solid pitcher this past season, but he definitely had his areas where he shined brighter than others. Before the season began, I was weary of his very high average exit velocity, which could’ve led to a lot more hits. Not only was his average exit velocity still rough, but it actually got worse. It went from 89.8 MPH to 91.5 MPH. This mark was actually in the bottom 3% of all of baseball as well. Valdez was overall a solid pitcher, but nothing crazy really stood out about his game. After starting the year as one of the better pitchers in baseball, he started to slow down as the season went on. A concern I have in this area is the large difference between his expected stats and actual stats. For example, his xERA of 4.33 is much higher than his actual ERA of 3.45. This example paired with his high average exit velocity tells me there was quite a bit of luck involved when he was having success. This is only sustainable for so long, especially with a BABIP of .282, which is the 13th best mark in the league for pitchers. Although he throws four pitches, Valdez is very much so a 2 pitch pitcher, as his sinker and curveball are the only two pitches he throws for positive run values. A zero grade for Valdez also means that he had a good amount of success, which is true given certain areas of his game. This pick could really go either way, and if there was a half point I would definitely use it here. If you think this pick was a miss, that’s totally reasonable. Valdez being an all-star and finishing top 10 in Cy Young is definitely a good argument. The underlying failures along with the success makes this pick harder to judge, which is why I give it a zero.

Pitcher #9: Adam Wainwright | Grade: +1

Adam Wainwright is one of the most interesting picks on this list, as he definitely comes along with the most career success out of anyone on this list by far. With this being Wainwright’s last season, his failure should’ve been expected. But, he was garnering a surprising amount of hype before the season for some reason. Since this pick was a pretty obvious one before the season, I won’t spend much time dragging on the bad that this season brought on for Wainwright. Wainwright struck out just 55 batters in the 101 innings he pitched, 11.4 K%, 8.5% BB%, 59 ERA+, 7.35 xERA, 5.77 xFIP, and a -0.4 fWAR. As I previously mentioned, this season was almost nothing but bad for Wainwright. Practically the only positive takeaway from this year was his 200th career victory on the mound. Wainwright ranked almost dead last in every statcast percentile, along with his sinker posting an astoundingly abysmal -23 run value. I really don’t want to drag on and on about such a horrible season for such a great pitcher historically, so I won’t dig too far into the numbers. This pick was a slam dunk, but due to it being pretty obvious, I’ll give it just a +1.

Pitcher #10: Logan Gilbert | Grade: -1

Logan Gilbert was heading into the 2023 season coming off of a Sophomore season where he took a huge step forward in his development. Gilbert has always had huge potential, as he was a first round pick in 2018. In 2023, Gilbert struck out 189 batters in 190.2 innings pitched, 24.5% K%, 4.7% BB%, 108 ERA+, 3.69 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, and a 3.2 fWAR. Before the season began, I was very concerned about Logan Gilbert’s percentile rankings, and his expected stats. To start, Gilbert raised his xERA from 4.11 to 3.69, which was a really impressive achievement. Gilbert also really improved his percentile rankings across the board, but especially his walk rate. It improved from 6.4% to 4.7% overnight, which also slotted him in the top 5% of the league in this area. The main cause for Gilbert’s improvement would be the addition of a splitter to his arsenal, which seems par for the course with Mariners starters lately. His slider also majorly improved which was also super helpful to his success. Gilbert’s splitter debuted this season at a +3 run value, and holding opponent wOBAs to just .222. This is unbelievably impressive, especially for a new pitch in it’s first season. His slider also went from a 0 run value to a +15 in just one season which was also astonishing. Although some areas of Gilbert’s game stayed relatively similar, his pitch improvement alone proved me wrong with this pick. And for that, this pick gets a -2.

Final Prediction Score: 0