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Back in 2020, the Texas Rangers had their eye on a prep prospect they believed would change their future. Being one of the premiere prospects in a the MLB Draft typically means that you’re ranked towards the top of draft rankings, but this prep prospect was different. When the Rangers drafted Evan Carter, he was a huge surprise. Carter hadn’t cracked virtually any of the top draft prospects rankings. When Carter was selected on draft day, nearly zero draft analysts even knew his name. When the selection of Carter was made, MLB Network had to scramble to even find information on Carter and his potential. Keep in mind this was the 50th pick of the draft! But the Rangers scouts knew exactly what they were doing with the pick of Carter, as he molded into one of the best prospects in all of Minor League Baseball in just a few years. This year, Carter came onto the scene like he hadn’t before, and led the Rangers to a World Series victory after only being in the MLB for a few weeks. In today’s article, we’ll cover Evan Carter’s 2023 season, and what makes him spectacular, and one of the best young stars the game has seen in recent years.

Starting Out in Double-A, and Moving On Up to Triple-A

Right after Spring Training, the Rangers sent Evan Carter back to Double-A to start the year. Carter finished the year there in 2022, and he was a pretty solid hitter in 2022 as he posted a wRC+ 212 in 6 games during his previous stint there. This year, Carter got a much larger taste of Double-A ball, as he played 97 games there to start the year. Carter showed why he was one of the best and most underrated prospects in the Minors during this time, as he hit 12 homers, 62 RBI, 22 stolen bases, 16% BB%, 22.3% K%, .167 ISO, a slash line of .284/.411/.451 with a .395 wOBA and a 133 wRC+. Carter was truly one of the best on base threats in all of the Minors, but especially the Texas League. Although the Texas League is historically an offensive friendly environment, Evan Carter’s most impressive statistics were in his underlying numbers.

Carter posted a really incredible wOBACON of .428 along with really solid swing metrics. Carter’s O-Swing% was one of the best marks in the Minors at just 25.7%, an O-Contact% of 70.7%, and a whiff rate of just 26.8%. Although the argument could have been made that Carter was a little too protective in the zone with his 54.1% Z-Swing%, and 40% Swing%, Carter was still showing that he had one of the best eyes in the sport. This is all eerily similar to how Juan Soto preformed in his time in the Minors, and this won’t be the first time this comparison is made. This is the first time many were made aware of Carter’s great on base skills, and Carter would begin shooting up the prospect rankings. His on base skills were so good that he even earned the nickname “Full Count Carter” around this time. His plate discipline tool was easily one of the best tools he had to his name. He was constantly able to battle into prime counts, and that helped him out a lot.

The Rangers would follow in the footsteps of everyone else, as they promoted him to Triple-A after seeing his amazing skills on display at Double-A. Carter wouldn’t be staying at Triple-A long however, as he only played 8 games before his Major League promotion. Carter would be amazing in this timeframe, and he continued to show his on base ability. In 8 games at Triple-A, Carter would post a 10.3% BB%, 15.4% K%, .353/.436/.382 slash line with a .392 wOBA, and a 115 wRC+. It’s a little tougher to measure how Carter did with such a small sample size, but he still looked really good, especially now that we can see some exit velocity metrics. His Z-Contact% of 88.9% was incredible to see, his O-Swing% was an amazing mark of 22.7%, and his O-Contact% of 60% was also a pretty decent mark to see. Carter would also post an excellent whiff percentage of just 19.6%, which was just a testament to his elite plate discipline. One last takeaway from his time in Triple-A that I found super encouraging was his 42.9% sweet spot percentage, and his 42.9% hard hit percentage.

Following this, Carter would move to the MLB level following injuries to the Rangers outfield, and his elite play would continue once he got to the Major Leagues next.

There’s a New Star in Texas

On September 8th, 2023, a new star would be born in the state of Texas, as Evan Carter took the field for the very first time. This was also when Carter would record his first Major League base hit. This, was the first of many for Carter in his first taste of the Major Leagues. Carter would also go on to show his offensive skills in the Postseason later on in the year. Before the season ended however, Carter was stunning. He hit 5 homers, 16% BB%, .339 ISO, .306/.413/.645 slash line, .435 wOBA, 180 wRC+, and an amazing 1.3 fWAR. Although Carter only had 75 plate appearances, he looked really great in this time period. Some other areas he shined included his astounding .634 wOBACON, 7.7% barrel rate, and his 46.2% sweet spot percentage. With Carter consistently getting good results on his contact, and consistently hitting the ball hard, he reminded me a lot of Juan Soto during his 2018-19 rise to stardom. The path of a young star, who knows the strike zone very well, leading a team to a World Series during the early part of his career seems eerily similar to what MLB saw in Juan Soto early in his career. Carter did slightly struggle when it came to some of his swing data, such as Swing%, Whiff%, Z-Swing%, Z-Contact%, and O-Contact%. But with Carter showing that he was elite in this area during his rise to stardom in the Minor Leagues, I think this is just a rookie adjustment. Seeing Major League pitching the same season where you saw Double-A pitching can lead to a spike in these areas. With less pitchers making mistakes, it’s bound to happen. Especially in just 23 games. But, Carter is still one of the better players in the entire league when it comes to knowing the strike zone, and hopefully we’ll see even more of that next year once he has some more experience. However, the regular season was only the beginning for Carter, as his Postseason was even better.

Heading into the playoffs, the Texas Rangers were one of the more slept on teams in baseball due to their bullpen struggles, slight injuries, and the fact that they opened the Postseason against the Tampa Bay Rays, who were one of baseball’s best teams. However, they made a statement, sweeping the Rays in two games in the American League Wild Card Round. And with this statement series, Evan Carter also made a huge statement. In those two games, Carter got on base 6 times in 8 plate appearances. This included 2 doubles, a homer, and 3 walks. Carter truly showed all of his skills in these 8 plate appearances, as he demonstrated power, plate discipline, and his elite bat in general.

Heading into the American League Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles, the Rangers were underdogs once again. Carter would continue to show his promise at the plate, this time even more, and against even better competition. The Orioles would once again sweep, and Carter was the centerpiece of these games. In 13 plate appearances, Carter would reach base 6 times, while only striking out twice. With a key extra-base hit, and 3 walks, Carter once again showed his on-base skills, and extra-base hit abilities, leading Baltimore in this sweep.

The next series would prove to be a little more of a struggle for Carter and the Rangers, but he would still come through when it mattered. Carter would post a much lower .321 OBP, but to focus on the better takeaways from this series, he would still get on base every single time during this 7 game American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros. However, despite the struggles of the entire team, they prevailed, advancing to the World Series.

The Rangers had finally reached the World Series, and Evan Carter was at the forefront of making history to close out the season. The Rangers had made it all this way, and they were not prepared. This was arguably the first series of the entire Postseason where they had been favored, but with the Arizona Diamondbacks had been on a tear. Evan Carter though, had other plans in mind. Through the World Series, Carter posted an OBP of .348, drove in a run, and recorded 3 doubles. On August 28th, he was in Double-A, and on November 1st, he became a World Champion. Carter’s amazing Postseason run was full of records as well, as he hit a Postseason record 9 doubles in their World Series run, and he got on base in every single game the Rangers played in the Postseason. He finished the Postseason with 18 hits in 17 games, 10 walks, 10 extra-base hits, and his first World Series ring. He did all of that at just 21-years-old!

Carter was incredible during the entire MLB Postseason, and it was truly the first time the world got to see just how good he was. But, with Carter being just 21-years-old, this is truly just the beginning for Carter and his MLB journey. But, now that we’ve told the story of Evan Carter, it’s time to examine just what makes him so good, more in depth.

Carter’s Skills

Evan Carter is a man of many talents when it comes to the baseball field, but he really shines in a few areas. Some of these areas include knowing the strike zone, not chasing often, barrel rates, speed, and his elite on-base skills. I compared him earlier in this article to another on-base machine in Juan Soto, and there’s some striking similarities in the way they play the game. Obviously, Carter is no Soto, but he certainly plays the game in a similar way. Although Carter hasn’t played much in the Major Leagues so far, we have a decent idea of the player he will be with a mix of his MiLB and MLB metrics.

Starting out with his ability to know the strike zone and not chase much, Carter is one of the best in this area I’ve seen in awhile. Although Carter’s MLB statistics aren’t as good as they were in the Minors, he still maintained a 10.1% O-Swing%, which is an incredible mark. Carter’s chase rate of just 9% would likely be in the top 1% of baseball if he was qualified according to Baseball Savant. Although Carter showed some struggles in the Major Leagues with his swing data, we don’t have a big enough sample size to fully understand how he’ll project that way. However, at Double-A, Carter posted top-of-the-line numbers in O-Swing%, O-Contact%, Whiff%, and BB%. Although Carter may be a little cautious when it comes to swinging at pitches in the zone with a below-average 40% swing rate, and a below-average 54.1% Z-Swing%, looking for the right pitch isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Especially given the offensive numbers he put up in Double-A. A 16% BB% is a pretty good representation of how well he knows the strike zone to back up my theory about the low swing rates. A low K% of 22.2%, and a .381 wOBA are also pretty good representations. Carter has always had a reputation for a good eye, as I previously showed with his nickname “Full-Count”. One thing is for sure, given his track record, Carter projects to have a great eye, to know the strike zone well, and to barely chase out of the zone. This will help him get to ideal counts, which he’s certainly comfortable with, as his 147 wRC+ in 3-2 counts is extremely good.

Carter’s batted ball stats have been really good so far also, with his 10.3% barrel percentage, and 43.6% sweet spot% being really good marks at the big league level. His hard hit percentage of 46.2% is also pretty solid as well. Typically, hitters like Carter aren’t built for power and hard hits, but Carter is an exception. Although his exit velocities could be a little better, Carter hasn’t played much in the MLB so far, so he has time to grow. But, what we have seen is an incredible indication about his future.

Evan Carter is also a tremendous speed threat on the base paths as well, as his sprint speed of 29.6 is in the 97th percentile in Major League Baseball. During his time in the Minors, when Carter played consistently at a level, he stole 20 or more stolen bases in around 100 games. He looked great on the base paths, and his elite speed will translate to more extra-base hits as well.

The one final elite tool Carter posses is his elite on-base skills. Carter strikes me as a huge on-base threat, as his ability to drive the ball and not chase much is a huge ability for getting on-base. Carter’s OBP of .413 in his first taste of the Major Leagues is extremely solid, and so is his wOBA of .435. Carter’s low swing and miss skills paired with his incredible eye makes him the perfect Juan Soto comparison.

Conclusion

Evan Carter is truly a tremendous talent, and how he rose from just a Rangers top 30 prospect, to baseball’s biggest new superstar in the making in less than a full season. Although we haven’t seen much of Evan Carter’s skills playout in the Major Leagues, we certainly have seen his track record. Given his incredible track record, I’m sure we’ll see even more of his skills on display next year.