Cover photo via Mike Trout on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CYQHCFDLsBb/?igsh=cDN4YnphNWtubzRu

Since debuting in 2011 with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, it was very clear early on that superstar outfielder Mike Trout was destined for an incredible career. With some saying he had the potential to be a top 10 player in baseball history at the pace he was going, Trout was one of baseball’s brightest young stars. We’re now 12 years through Trout’s career, and these predictions couldn’t have been more accurate. Multiple MVPs, 11 all-star selections, and plenty more awards have come Trout’s way. Yet, there has been a lingering issue for Trout over the past few years: injuries. Trout has missed significant time throughout his full career due to injuries, but it’s only gotten worse as of late. Trout hasn’t played more than 120 games since 2019, and he’s only played more than 100 games in one of those seasons. As Trout enters his age 32 season, the question begins to arise: Is Mike Trout’s prime finally over? With this season potentially being make or break for this debate, it’s time to take a look at the potential reality that we have seen the last of Mike Trout in his prime.

Trout’s Best Seasons Vs His Current Trendline

In order to truly understand the direction Trout’s career is heading, we have to take a look back on his best seasons to see if his production is declining during his healthy seasons. In my opinion, Trout’s two best seasons were his 2013, and 2018 respectfully. It’s really hard to narrow down such a legendary stretch into just two seasons, but this is when Trout was arguably at his best all around. Now that we’ve established his two best years, let’s give them a quick recap.

Trout’s 2013 season was arguably the best of his career, as he was truly an all-around threat. Trout hit 27 homers, 15.4% BB%, 19% K%, he slashed .323/.432/.557 with a .423 wOBA, 176 wRC+, and a 10.2 fWAR. Trout was incredible as you can see, but he just barely missed out on the first MVP award of his career, only falling short to another all-time great in Miguel Cabrera. Mike also stole 33 bags, and was truly a great all around player. Trout’s speed made him a valuable defender in center field despite his -13 defensive runs saved. Although he didn’t win American League Most Valuable Player that season, Trout still took home some hardware. For example, he won a silver slugger award, and was named to the all-star team for the American League. Trout also recorded just shy of 200 hits, and just shy of 100 RBI as well. Trout’s 2013 season was truly one of the best of his career, as he showed that he could be a 10 WAR player, while also maintaining solid metrics across the board.

Moving into the second season I consider to be in the running for one of Trout’s best, his 2018 season. In 2018, Mike Trout hit 39 homers, 20.1% BB%, 20.4% K%, he slashed .312/.460/.628 with a .447 wOBA, 188 wRC+, and a 9.5 fWAR. As you can tell, this is definitely one of Trout’s best seasons even without checking out the rest of his game. Although he posted a lower fWAR than his 2013 season, his offense saw a new power uptick, along with even better on-base numbers than before. Trout was still a solid baserunner, stealing 24 bases for the Halos. Trout drove in 79 runs, and his 122 walks were and still are a career high. Trout has had seasons with better individual statistics, such as his 2019 season where he hit 45 home runs, this was definitely the season where things came together the best. Unlike 2013, Trout’s 2018 season was in the Statcast era, which makes it even more impressive when you break it down. It was his best defensive season in the Statcast era, as his fielding run value of +7, and OAA of +6 were two of his best defensive marks of his career. Funny enough, Trout would once again not win MVP in one of his best seasons, this time finishing second to another outfield superstar in Mookie Betts. But, he once again won a silver slugger, and took home another all-star nod. Trout once again showed his entire skill set on full display, and he showed the generational numbers he’d put up at full strength.

Now that we’ve gone over some of Trout’s best seasons, let’s take a closer look at some of his more recent seasons. These years will include 2023, and 2022. Trout was faced with injuries in both of these seasons, so I’ll be mixing in his actual numbers with the numbers he would’ve put up in 162 games at that pace.

Heading into Trout’s 2022 campaign, he was looking to rebound from a 2021 season where he played just 36 games, and rebound he would. In 119 games, Trout would hit 40 homers, 10.8% BB%, 27.9% K%, he slashed .283/.369/.630 with a .418 wOBA, 176 wRC+, and a 6 fWAR. Trout really hit well in the time he played this season, but you can see some regression in areas of his game. It’s crazy that I’m saying that about someone who posted 6 fWAR with a 176 wRC+, which is a testament to Trout’s career. Trout barely ran this year also, as he put up just 1 stolen base all season. This was probably precautionary because of his injury the year prior being calf related, but it’s safe to say his 20+ stolen base seasons are over. Trout would still show his arm strength to be elite, but he was an average defender. His OAA of 1 was barely above average, and his 0 arm value was almost exactly average. But, Trout was still amazing. He drove in 80 runs, and hit just shy of 30 doubles as well. Trout was also good enough to earn an 8th place MVP vote, while also winning a silver slugger and being named an all-star once again. Trout definitely slowed down in some areas of his game, but he was still one of the best players in the game. As I touched on previously, Trout’s 6 fWAR being considered a “down season” is beyond impressive. He still hit 40 homers, and posted a wRC+ of 176 in not even 120 games! Had he played a full 162 games at this rate, Trout would’ve hit roughly 54 homers, which would have been the most in baseball by 6 homers.

Moving on to Trout’s most recent season in 2023, Trout was playing at a tremendous rate before he broke his hamate bone on a hit by pitch. This led to him losing a lot of time, but he was able to come back. However, this was only for a game, before he went back on the injured list immediately after, ending his 2023 campaign with just 82 games played. In these 82 games, Trout was still on a really good pace, as he hit 18 homers, 12.4% BB%, 28.7% K%, he slashed .263/.367/.490 with a .368 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and a 3 fWAR. This was easily of Trout’s more disappointing seasons, as he only played just over half a season. Trout’s bat was still very much so elite however, as he maintained amazing peripherals across the board. But, it just wasn’t what we usually see out of a hitter like Mike Trout. Despite taking a dip at the plate, Trout’s work to improve his defense paid off, and he put up a 4 OAA, with a positive arm, which was a great sign. Trout would also earn another all-star nod in the first half, which was super impressive considering he missed virtually all of the second half. This is again just an incredible indication of Trout’s skills. Had Trout played a full 162 games at this rate, he likely would’ve finished with 35 homers, 6 fWAR, and an overall great season. Unfortunately, we’re faced with the reality in which Trout did not play a full season, and did not put up these numbers.

Now that we’ve taken an in-depth look at two of Trout’s best seasons compared to his two most recent seasons, we can have an idea of the trendline of Trout’s production. At his peak, Trout was capable of putting up 10 fWAR, 30-40 homers, and a 175-180 wRC+. But when taking a look at how he’s playing in a full season, it seems as though Trout might more realistically put up a 6 fWAR, 30-35 homers, and a 170 wRC+. With these numbers, we can clearly see a decline in his production. But, it isn’t as large as you’d expect to see from a player who is “leaving their prime”.

Are Injuries the True Cause of His Fall-Off Debates?

With the narrative that Trout has been on the road to “Falling Off” being prevalent lately, I’ve been wondering if his injury issue has been the root cause of these debates. And after looking at the numbers, I definitely think this is the case. People are very worried about Trout’s ability to stay on the field for a full season, which is a totally reasonable question to ask given the last few years. But, I think that the injuries are the true cause of this debate, and not a change in production on the field.

As we touched on in the last section, if Trout continues his rate of production across a full season, he’s still a 6 fWAR player. Obviously, this is nothing compared to his seasons where he posted 8-10 fWAR seasons, but this is still very much so elite. Had Trout put up an exactly 6 fWAR season in 2023, that still would’ve put him top 10 in that category, and on the same tier as Francisco Lindor, and Corbin Carroll. In fact, there were only 9 hitters in 2023 who posted an fWAR of 6 or more. If you add in the 35 homer benchmark from the number we calculated Trout would likely reach, that list of players shrinks to just 4. Given this, Trout’s on-field production in what would be considered a down year for him, would still be a top 10 season by fWAR, and a top 5 season when you add in the 35 homer benchmark. His peripherals and other numbers haven’t seen major, year to year changes, so when he remains on the field, he remains an elite ballplayer by a pretty large margin. So, his on-field production is definitely not the root cause of these debates.

It’s also important to note that Trout has had seasons in the past where he’s been around the 6 fWAR and 35 homer mark. For example, let’s take a look at his 2017 season. That year, Trout played 114 games, missing some time due to injury. But, he still managed to hit 33 homers, post a wRC+ of 180, and still finish the season being worth 6.3 fWAR. When you break it down like that, it seems as though Trout’s down years tend to be in this range. Taking all of this into consideration, it just seems like injuries are the root cause for Trout’s down years.

The correlation between Trout’s “down years” and his most injured seasons also lines up about right. His most recent seasons have obviously resulted in Trout missing major time, thus bringing down his production. This also lines up with his 2017 and 2022 seasons also, which he missed some significant time in, and posted around 6 fWAR.

Given the correlation between his injured seasons, his little to no difference in statistical changes, still elite production when he’s healthy, and more injured seasons now than earlier in his career, I definitely think that the root cause of the “fall-off” debates are his lack of consistent playing time, and injury issues.

Next Steps for Trout: Is His Prime Truly Over? What’s Next?

Based on the numbers I’ve presented during this article, I truly don’t believe Trout’s prime is over just yet. I think he’s just been hit with some tough injuries over the last few years. As we’ve established, Trout is still playing at an elite rate, and there’s really no reason to be concerned outside of his injuries. Obviously, we’re entering the later stages of Trout’s career, but he definitely still has plenty in the tank. Trout may not be a 10 fWAR player anymore, but he’s definitely still one of our game’s best players.

Now that we’ve come to the conclusion that Trout’s prime isn’t over just yet, we now have to answer the question: What’s next for Mike Trout and his career? Trout is now 32 years old, and hasn’t played around a full season worth of games since 2019. Although injuries are incredibly unpredictable and Trout can be injured at any moment, I think Trout still has a few prime years in the tank. If I had to guess, he’ll start slowing down around 35, giving him 4 more years of prime action. Age 35 is when many comparable players to Trout start slowing down, such as Mariners legend Ken Griffey Jr., so it’s safe to say Trout may be on the same path. Griffey is also similar to Trout in the sense that they’ve both been faced with plenty of injuries in their careers, and their paths have been similar to this point.

If I had to project the type of hitter Trout will be until his prime is over, I’d say he’ll be one of the more valuable hitters in baseball, probably posting similar numbers to his 162 game pace in 2023. I’d project Trout to be around a 30-35 home run caliber hitter, with a 160-170 wRC+, and around 6-7 fWAR. Trout will eventually start to slow down, but I don’t think it’s time just yet. Injuries are a tough thing to deal with, and if Trout stays healthy, he’ll continue to be one of the greatest hitters we’ve ever seen, for a few more years.

Conclusion

Mike Trout is one of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball, and it’s been a pleasure to watch his career play out in front of our eyes. It’s truly a blessing. Being faced with the reality that Trout’s career is entering it’s twilight is a really emotional realization. If his injuries have taught me anything, it’s that we need to appreciate Mike Trout for all that we can while he’s still on the field, because one day, he won’t be. It’s been really frustrating to see injuries take away such an amazing player from us, and I wish nothing but the best for Trout. Someday, we’ll be faced with te sad reality that the discussions will no longer be about injuries plaguing his prime, but instead a discussion of how amazing his career was, and how blessed we were to be able to see it live.