Well ladies and gentleman, the off-season is finally upon us, and it has the chance to be one of the most historic off-seasons in Major League history. This season, the generational talent that is Shohei Ohtani, finally hits the free agent market for the first time since he came to the MLB. With many big and medium market teams all in the mix, there’s plenty of places Ohtani could be headed this off-season. In this article, I’ll be taking a look at a few potential landing spots for Ohtani, and what a potential offer could look like.

Team #1: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the team I personally believe will land Shohei Ohtani, and they’re also the team that I think makes the most sense for Ohtani to sign with. It’s no secret that the Dodgers are preparing to make a run for the Japanese phenom, as many baseball insiders have reported them as the main team to pursue him this winter. The Dodgers reportedly took a break from their high payroll off-seasons last year, as they let Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, and other Dodgers superstars take their talents elsewhere.

Ohtani has expressed his interest to play for a contending team, and the Dodgers are exactly the team for this. It’s really impressive for a team to call a 100-win team a “down year”, and that is exactly what the Dodgers did in 2023. The best team Shohei has been a part of in the United States has been an 80-win Angels squad.

It’s unclear exactly where Shohei has his eyes set on landing, but with Ohtani being from another country and only playing in Los Angeles so far, Ohtani staying around this area might be something he’s considering as well. There’s rumblings he wants to head to the East Coast, but Los Angeles is somewhere he could easily stay, and be assimilated in.

The Dodgers have a lot of holes they need to address this off-season, as we saw a lot of them exposed during their 2023 playoff run. The Dodgers lineup is as talented as any, as Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman will both get MVP votes, and players such as Will Smith, and Max Muncy have all-star potential every year. But, their bottom of the order could always use some development. James Outman, Miguel Rojas, and Jason Heyward are all solid bats, but they could lack the spark the Dodgers need. On the pitching side of things, they have a very young rotation overall. Players such as Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and more lead the way. They do have some long-term injured players which will help them to have back next season, and adding Ohtani to this group offensively and pitching wise would help a lot.

As for the dollar figure Ohtani could be given in Los Angeles, there isn’t a clearcut answer just yet. A player of Ohtani’s caliber really hasn’t ever come around, let alone in the era where players easily make hundreds of millions across ten or more seasons. Offers for Shohei could range anywhere between $500 million, to $800 million dollars. I personally believe a reasonable offer for Ohtani based on what I’ve seen is $625 million, to $675 million, across ten to twelve seasons. I think an offer from the Dodgers could look like $650 million, across 12 seasons, which comes out to an AAV of about $54.2 million.

Ohtani is coming into 2024 after having a second UCL surgery since coming over to the United States, so he could have his value effected by injury concerns, but we’ll have to wait and see.

With the Dodgers aggressively pursuing Ohtani to fill holes on the roster, being a contender, geographical location, and having lots of money to throw around, they make a perfect fit to land Shohei Ohtani this winter.

Team #2: The Chicago Cubs

As of the time I’m writing this, the Chicago Cubs were revealed as a surprise contender to learn Shohei Ohtani. Many MLB general managers and executives have said the Cubs “may be the most aggressive team” to land Shohei Ohtani this winter. This comes as a huge shock to me, and many others around the baseball world, as the Cubs are in an interesting position this winter. The Cubs have spent heavily recently, as they signed Dansby Swanson to a 7-year/$177 million dollar deal last season.

As I previously touched on with the segment above, Shohei Ohtani has expressed a lot of interest in being part of a contending team, and the Cubs could be this answer to this cry for a ring. Although they missed the Postseason this year, it wasn’t by much. The Cubs have begun to build a solid core, with Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner all locked into long-term contracts. Even though they missed the playoffs, the Cubs won more games than Shohei ever did with the Angels this year as well.

I touched on geography a little bit in the Dodgers section also, and the possibility that Shohei wants to go East is ever present. With the Cubs definitely being further East than Los Angeles, this could also play a big role in this decision as well. Chicago is one of the better baseball towns in the entire United States, so to have the chance to play there is a huge blessing for Shohei.

The Cubs are definitely further away from being World Series contenders than other teams on this list, especially if they end up losing Cody Bellinger, who was a huge piece of the 2023 squad. However, with the way the Cubs have been spending recently, the core around Ohtani could just be getting started if he were to sign. On the pitching side, Justin Steele put up a borderline Cy Young season this year, and other young arms have showed promise. On the offensive side, Happ, Hoerner, Swanson, Suzuki, and more have all been huge role players for the Cubs as well. Especially with Suzuki being a former Japanese superstar himself, this may help to rope in Shohei for a long-term deal.

As for a contract we could expect to see from Shohei if he were to sign in Chicago, this number really varies as well. This will end up being the story of the entire off-season, as nobody knows what to expect from him numbers wise. As I said before, I think Shohei could see a contract anywhere in the $500 million to $800 million dollar range. But, as for Shohei and the Cubs, I could see Shohei land an 8-year/$600 million dollar deal, which gives the contract an AAV of $75 million a season. Although you may be thinking the AAV on this contract is high, it isn’t unrealistic with things I’ve been hearing about how the Cubs plan to attack this competitive window.

With the Cubs being on the brink of a competitive window, and reportedly being ready to dish out the checkbook to Ohtani, I could see this matchup as a realistic possibility from both sides. Although I have questions with this move and how it might workout, that doesn’t mean this isn’t a possibility.

Team #3: The Texas Rangers

This season was not only a big one for Shohei Ohtani, but it was a huge season for the Texas Rangers as well. The Rangers finally won their first World Series in team history, as they beat the Diamondbacks 4-1 to take it home. Most people expect the Rangers to address holes on their roster this off-season, such as their bullpen. But, Shohei’s name has been thrown around in the discussions of players to add. The Rangers aren’t shy to spend big in free agency, as they’ve committed over $650 million dollars between three free agents in the past few seasons.

I mentioned in both earlier sections of this article that Shohei has expressed interest in wanting to win and be a part of a contending team. And what better place to make this a reality? I touched on it a little in the first paragraph of this section, but the Rangers took home the World Series title this season, and they have a legitimate chance to repeat next year. With a strong core built with long-term deals, the rotation and offense are set for quite a few seasons. Adding Shohei to this squad makes them even more dangerous, especially when he can come back and pitch after the 2024 season.

When looking ahead to the prospects this team has to offer in the future, they only get more dangerous. Evan Carter played his first few months of Major League Baseball this fall, Wyatt Langford will likely debut next season, and the talented Vandy pitching duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker can both be scary. Some of their young superstars such as Adolis García have yet to hit arbatration. With this being said, the Rangers not only have the long-term megadeal contracts as part of their future, but also a good group of young prospects who are on the way. With the Rangers still being big spenders, there’s always the chance they add another player or two to this group as well.

Given the history of recent long-term deals the Rangers have handed out, they certainly aren’t afraid to spend some money on the market. As for what a contract to Shohei Ohtani could look like with the Rangers? I’m thinking 10-years/$585 million dollars, which comes out to an AAV of about $58.5 million. This may be a more expensive contract in terms of AAV than some teams would be willing to consider, but I think the Rangers would much rather dish out more money in a shorter time period than less money per year over a few extra years. I think for the Rangers as well, staying under that $600 million dollar threshold would be a big deal as well, as it gives them more freedom to sign other pieces.

Out of the teams I’ve covered to this point, I think the Rangers are the least likely to land Shohei, but it’s definitely still a possibility. After coming off of their World Series victory last season, they are already favorites to run it back next year. But with Shohei by their side, they would definitely be the next big thing in Texas.

Team #4: The San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are in a very interesting spot in terms of where they stand as a franchise following the 2023 season. The Giants still have a lot of potential pieces they can use to their advantage, but a disappointing 79-83 record to close things out may change things up. The Giants won over 100 games just a few years ago, and they still have some key pieces of that team on the roster. Although they didn’t necessarily pull in the big free agents they were expected to in 2022, they proved that they weren’t afraid to be willing to open the checkbooks for the right deal, and Shohei Ohtani might be that deal.

With the Giants finishing the season with a 79-83 record, they may not be the first option on the board for Shohei Ohtani to consider, as he wants to win. However, they still show a lot of future promise, even with a subpar record. The Giants do not have the long-term, established cores that teams like the Rangers, Dodgers, and Cubs do, but Ohtani has a chance to be the first part of a new core. The Giants are expected to be one of the more active spenders in this winter’s free agent market, meaning that they could very easily establish parts to help a core which may have some questions attached to it. With these pieces plus Shohei on board, the Giants get to be a very dangerous team, very quickly.

The Giants roster is currently headlined by their strong pitching staff, and solid offensive role players. Their ace, Logan Webb, is currently a finalist for the Cy Young Award. Although Webb likely won’t take home the award, this speaks volumes to their overall potential moving forward. Other strong starters such as all-star Alex Cobb also come to mind. Their offense is headlined by players such as Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, and more. Although this group is solid at times, they aren’t a top tier offense. Bringing in Shohei Ohtani could also be a big part of that. With some prospects on the way, they will only improve.

As for a potential contract the Giants may hand Ohtani? I’m projecting a contract in the range of 11-years/$615 million, which comes out to an AAV of about $61.2 million. I touched on the Giants dishing out large contracts last year, but just missing out due to players signing elsewhere, or medical related issues. The Giants offered Aaron Judge a nine-year/$360 million dollar deal, and a 13-year/$350 million dollar deal to Carlos Correa. Although they missed out on both of these players, their contract offers give us an idea of what the Giants are willing to do in terms of contract length, AAV commitment, and more. Knowing that they aren’t afraid of paying players what they’re worth, and giving out long deals is a good sign when it come to signing Shohei.

I also see the Giants as one of the more unlikely spots for Shohei to land, but with how the Giants appear to be gearing up to spend this off-season, nothing is impossible. With the Giants also being in California, they may also get a slight bump in likeliness because of geographical location. Regardless, Shohei would be a great fit for the Giants, we just have to wait and see if something gets done.

Team #5: The Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are coming off of a 2023 season where they just barely missed the playoffs, but they were a strong team nonetheless. The Mariners finished the season with an 88-74 record, which was impressive even without the playoff berth they had hoped for. The Mariners are a staple team for Japanese baseball culture, as they were the team who originally gave Ichiro Suzuki a chance to make his name heard in the States. Shohei Ohtani has the unique chance to continue that legacy that Ichiro left for him in Seattle.

Even though the Mariners fell shy of the playoffs, their 88-74 record is better than Shohei Ohtani has ever seen on his teams in the States. Although they might not have the proven playoff history, they are certainly still in a place to contend, which is something Shohei very obviously wants. They have a fairly established core, with young superstar Julio Rodríguez leading the way. With a fairly young group of players making their way to the MLB, Shohei Ohtani has the unique chance to lead a young team to the promise land for the first time in their history. The Mariners may not be the staple team to sign Ohtani, but they should be active spenders this off-season, and getting Ohtani to cap it off would be an amazing addition.

As I previously mentioned, the Mariners young core is headlined by superstar Julio Rodríguez, who just finished his sophomore season in 2023. Julio Rodríguez has won Rookie of the Year, two silver sluggers, two all-star appearances, and plenty more accolades to this point. Their pitching core is also shaping up to be one of the better rotations in all of baseball, as George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert are some of the names who pop off the charts. Their offense has also been pretty solid outside of Julio, with players such as J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Ty France, Eugenio Suárez, and Jared Kelenic have all played huge roles in their success.

A potential contract offer from the Seattle Mariners to Shohei Ohtani could range all across the board, as they’ve been known to be stingy in the past. However, a recent trend of the Mariners has been to lock down some stars long-term. Julio Rodríguez was given a 12-year/$209.3 million dollar contract. The most important thing to note about this contract is that it has the potential to reach a maximum of 17 years, and potentially $470 million dollars. The Mariners also signed Robbie Ray to a 5-year/$115 million dollar deal right after his Cy Young season. With all of this being said, the Mariners could offer Shohei a massive contract. Personally, I see a contract in the 13-year/$650 million dollar range. This breaks down to about a $50 million dollar AAV.

The Mariners are one of the least likely landing spots for Shohei on this list, but they would certainly be one of the most fun outcomes. Seeing Shohei head to Seattle and carry on Ichiro’s legacy would be incredible to see, and this outcome is honestly the one I’d like to see most. As for if it happens, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Final Thoughts and Honorable Mentions

Some other teams I could see in the running for Shohei Ohtani, include the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Braves, Padres, and Phillies. All of these teams are obviously in the mix for Shohei, especially given their top of the line payrolls and winning history as well.

Regardless of where Shohei lands however, watching closely to see where he lands could be one of the most exciting free agent chases we’ve seen in MLB history. Shohei Ohtani is arguably the most talented player in MLB history, and any team would be more than happy to add him to their roster. We’ll just have to wait and see where he ends up, but it should be an amazing race to the finish.